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As discussed in our last article — Politics to Continue to Drive Crude Prices Through 2019 — Geopolitics Central (GPC) is bullish on WTI crude prices through 2019 partly because we expect a significant rebound in politically-inspired oil production outages. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran should provide a solid base of geopolitical uncertainty, but as of now we do not expect it to lead to a hot war and a massive supply disruption over this period. But there are many more potential sources of disruption to supply, albeit significantly less dramatic, the four most likely ones from our perspective are Iran (new economic sanctions), Libya (election-related violence), Nigeria (militancy in Niger Delta region), and Venezuela (end game).
January 22, 2018, 6 AM MST
Canadian oil production surged 240,000 bbls/d in November to stand just below five million bbls/d, and growth this year will be powered by Fort Hills and Hebron, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today in its first monthly review of the oil market.
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