Analysis

  • Tertzakian: Colluding On Oil Production Is A Game That Can’t Be Played Anymore

    The 2020 Olympics have been deferred, but the Geopolitical Oil Games are full on. Who will stand on the gold podium? Saudi Arabia, Russia or the United States? Will countries like Canada, Brazil or Norway even place?

    April 8, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • 2020 – A Lesson in Real Crises

    Everybody in the world (this statement has meaning like it never did before) understands that humanity faces a real, immediate crisis — the COVID-19 pandemic.  And world economies face another less deadly but still profound crisis caused by the pandemic and the Russia / OPEC price war that has upset global oil markets.

    March 31, 2020, 12 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 4 – Canada As Collateral Damage

    In the first two articles of this series I put forth the thesis that the current oil price war was instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the goal of causing substantial permanent damage to the U.S. shale industry, and the third article discussed three possible wildcards related to my thesis.

    March 30, 2020, 6:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 3 – Major Wildcards

    The first two articles in this series explained the rationale for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oil price war, the second article in more detail than the first. Before delving into three major wildcards that could impact Putin’s price war, both in a positive and negative manner, I have one matter I wish to discuss related to the central thesis, based on comments by a few friends and colleagues over the past week.

    March 27, 2020, 4:52 AM MDT

  • M&A Value Falls To Lowest Level Since 2003

    The total enterprise value of merger and acquisition (“M&A”) transactions in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry dropped 34 per cent, falling to approximately $8.0 billion in 2019 from the $12.1 billion recorded in the previous year.

    March 25, 2020, 8:31 AM MDT

  • Western Canada Oil Production Cuts Imminent Due To Storage At Full Capacity: Rystad

    Industry must cut Western Canada’s crude production by some 11 per cent for April, says Rystad Energy AS, as the country is days away from running out of available storage capacity given the large global supply surplus created by the COVID-19 demand deconstruction and an ongoing Saudi-Russia oil price war.

    March 25, 2020, 8:30 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 2 – Clash Of The Oil Titans

    In the first of the Oil Price War 4.0 series, it was argued in a general sort of way that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s price war would likely be longer and deeper than the three previously started by Saudi Arabia.

    March 23, 2020, 9:10 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 1 – Longer and Deeper?

    I have worked as a world oil analyst during all four crude oil price wars since the creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, having started my career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in the mid-‘80s. Based on what I’ve learned about oil price wars over this period, we should batten down the hatches, as this one could be the longest and deepest of them all.

    March 18, 2020, 1:33 PM MDT

  • Opinions On Energy And Environment In Canada Part 3: How To Chart A Positive Path Forward On Energy And Environment

    With increasingly stringent public health measures across the country to combat COVID-19, Canadians are understandably less focused on energy and environment than usual. But the precipitous drop in global oil prices and the collapse in Canadian energy stocks underscore the tight link between energy and global circumstances.

    March 17, 2020, 10:05 AM MDT

  • Economic Reconciliation The Wrong Way

    Phil Fontaine, living legend and former three-term national chief of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), has said on numerous occasions that reconciliation is not possible without narrowing the economic gap between Indigenous peoples and the rest of Canadians.

    February 27, 2020, 9:54 AM MST

  • Total Oil & Natural Gas Financings Up Slightly In 2019

    The total amount of capital raised in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry in 2019 slightly increased to $5.36 billion compared to the previous year’s record low of $5.29 billion.

    February 26, 2020, 8:33 AM MST

  • Opinions On Energy And Environment In Canada Part 2: Divisions Exist, But Canadians And Energy/Environment Leaders Aren’t Necessarily Polarized

    Seeing the protests in support of the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs opposed to the Coastal GasLink pipeline, you might think the country is hopelessly polarized over energy and environment. Canadians’ views on oil and gas development, pipelines, Indigenous rights and climate action seem ever-more divergent. So do those of energy and environmental leaders.

    February 18, 2020, 3:54 AM MST

  • Danger Of An Anti-Fracking U.S. President

    Results from the Democratic Party’s presidential caucus in Iowa may be muddled, but it is crystal clear that two of the front runners for the nomination, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, will do all in their power to shut down the U.S. shale industry if they become president.

    February 10, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Introduction To 3-Part Series: Opinions On Energy And Environment In Canada: A Positive Path Forward Is Possible

    There is mounting concern in Canada about conflict over energy and environmental issues. It is easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of conflict and see division everywhere — some days it seems like warring politicians, angry protests and social media fights are the only game in town.

    February 4, 2020, 4:56 AM MST

  • Part 1: Canadians Not As Divided As Many Believe:  Emerging Consensus On Oil And Gas, Climate And The National Interest

    As Parliament resumes in Ottawa this week, differences between the parties over energy and environmental issues are sure to hit the headlines and erupt on social media. Judging by these debates, Canadians’ views on things like carbon taxes, pipelines and oil and gas development are increasingly divergent.

    February 4, 2020, 4:57 AM MST

  • Sayer’s Outlook For 2020 M&A Activity

    Sayer Energy Advisors’ annual outlook and forecast of forthcoming mergers and acquisitions (“M&A”) activity in the oil and natural gas industry will outline our predictions for 2020.

    January 29, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • We Need To Talk About Energy Policy – And Climate Change

    The media wars — mainstream media, social media, blogs, and others — continue to heat up over energy policy and climate change, and Canada is in the heart of the battle.

    January 29, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Is Libya Rope-A-Doping Global Oil Market?

    Market players have been extremely blasé about the large disruption to Libyan oil output since January 19, with the price of international marker Brent crude actually dropping more than two dollars a barrel.

    January 27, 2020, 9:39 AM MST

  • Big Questions For 2020

    As we flip the calendar into the new year and a new decade, it’s a good time to pause and think about what the next 12 months and beyond may hold in store for the oil and gas industry. Here are some of the big questions that are front of mind as we start the new year.

    January 8, 2020, 8:39 AM MST

  • Soleimani’s Death Increases Probability Of Another Oil Shock

    The assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was a brilliant move by the Trump administration, if its goal is regime change.

    January 8, 2020, 10:40 AM MST

  • Does The ‘Green Economy’ Offer New Jobs And Opportunity For Western Canada?

    Proponents of a transition to a new, “green” economy like to promote wonderful new business and employment opportunities that will arise as we abandon fossil fuels to power humanity with solar, wind, biomass and the like.

    December 17, 2019, 12 AM MST

  • A Crude Oil Price Surprise For 2020?

    Saudi Arabia rode to the rescue of crude oil prices yet again by pushing through 500,000-bbl-day of additional output cuts for the first quarter of next year. This was reportedly after putting the price war gun to the heads of fellow OPEC+ members, especially laggards to the previous production pact such as Iraq, Nigeria and Russia.

    December 16, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Loss Of Innovation Funding Has Ripple Effects Well Beyond Research Labs

    In the Alberta budget released Oct. 24, 2019, the provincial government announced that it will eliminate the Alberta tax credit component of the Scientific Research & Experimental Development (SR&ED) program for expenditures incurred after Dec. 31, 2019.

    December 2, 2019, 8:51 AM MST

  • Are Flow-Through Share Financings Heading Toward Extinction?

    The total amount of equity raised through flow-through share equity financings to date in 2019 in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry, as illustrated in the graph below, is approximately $67 million, down 43 per cent from the $118 million completed in 2018 and 74 per cent lower than the $258 million raised in 2016.

    November 27, 2019, 7:48 AM MST

  • Should We Keep Investing In Canada’s Oil And Gas Industry?

    There’s a lot of discouraging news around the oil and gas industry these days. It’s under siege from activists, governments, and even investors.  Is there any smart money left in the industry, and is there a case to be made for new investment?

    November 18, 2019, 12 AM MST

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