Analysis

  • Analysis: Light/Heavy Spread Expected To Average US$15-$20 For 2018

    After several months of consternation, Canadian light-heavy crude oil price spreads look like they have begun to more convincingly contract.

    April 18, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: How Do Renewables Stack Up With Natural Gas?

    It is a new narrative. Electrons generated from wind and solar are the cheapest available.  Renewable energy is undergoing a remarkable fall in costs that will displace all other systems, including natural gas. The latter claim is too early to call.

    April 18, 2018, 6:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Prices To Strengthen Through Next Year

    International benchmark crude prices played out basically as expected by Geopolitics Central (GPC) in the first quarter of the year, with a few interesting twists on the market fundamentals front and growing signs of ongoing Russia-OPEC co-operation encouraging us to maintain our current short-term outlook.

    April 9, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: A Trade War Boon for Canadian Oil Industry?

    When I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

    March 22, 2018, 9:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Future Is Less About Oil Prices Than Innovation

    Last week, 4,500 people from the global energy industry congregated in Houston, Texas for the annual IHS Markit CERAWeek conference. In every conference room and meeting location, conference attendees buzzed with enthusiastic conversation about change. Here are the major themes that dominated the discussion.

    March 14, 2018, 3:30 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time To Hitch Alberta To LTO Wagon

    It’s time for the Alberta government to think outside the box.

    March 12, 2018, 3:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Future Of OPEC And Oil Prices

    The Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) was born in a time of plenty, prospered over a period of real or perceived scarcity, and will likely die in the distant future as the world shifts away from high-carbon energy resources.

    February 26, 2018, 3:47 AM MST

  • Analysis: A Modest Proposal To End Western Canada’s Railway Pinch

    A new Western Canadian oil pipeline pinch had been widely predicted for the fourth quarter of last year. The corresponding increase in regional oil price differentials was expected to be gradual and moderate, with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) coming to the rescue of oil shippers, just as they did earlier this decade.

    February 5, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Sayer’s Outlook For 2018 M&A Activity

    In spite of prolonged low commodity prices, when considering only the total value of mergers and acquisitions (“M&A”) activity, 2017 was an above average year for M&A activity in the Canadian oil patch.  While the nature of transactions may change somewhat, even with the worst of the most recent oil price onslaught apparently behind us, Sayer Energy Advisors forecasts that there will be significantly less M&A activity, in total dollar value, in 2018 than there was in 2017.

    January 25, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • CGAI Series: Energy As A Service — Going Beyond Energy Supply

    As a major natural resource provider, Canada has approached its transition to a low-carbon economy very much in the light of its energy production and supply. Its discussion about climate change has been dominated by worries about pipelines, oilsands, shale gas and uranium production without much thought about the other side of energy: usage and consumption.

    January 23, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Top Geopolitical Hotspots For Crude Oil Through 2019

    As discussed in our last article — Politics to Continue to Drive Crude Prices Through 2019 — Geopolitics Central (GPC) is bullish on WTI crude prices through 2019 partly because we expect a significant rebound in politically-inspired oil production outages. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran should provide a solid base of geopolitical uncertainty, but as of now we do not expect it to lead to a hot war and a massive supply disruption over this period. But there are many more potential sources of disruption to supply, albeit significantly less dramatic, the four most likely ones from our perspective are Iran (new economic sanctions), Libya (election-related violence), Nigeria (militancy in Niger Delta region), and Venezuela (end game).

    January 22, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: AECO Natural Gas — Fifty Per Cent Discounts Don’t Last Forever

    This week’s ARC SnapChart plots the dramatic decline in AECO futures pricing over the past six months. The average futures price from 2018 to 2021 has fallen from $C 2.36/GJ in July to $C 1.57/GJ today. At the current price, a molecule of natural gas in Alberta is trading at a 50 per cent markdown to Louisiana’s Henry Hub.

    January 17, 2018, 7:54 AM MST

  • Analysis: Politics To Continue To Drive Crude Prices Through 2019

    The jump in international benchmark crude prices in the fourth quarter of last year surprised most oil forecasters. Here at Geopolitics Central (GPC), we expected spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to rebound, having previously predicted the price to average US$62.50/bbl this year (DOB, Oct. 11, 2017) — but failed to see the speed in which prices would increase.

    January 8, 2018, 9:32 AM MST

  • Analysis: Revolutions Fell Big Trees – An Ode To Peak Oil Demand

    People around these parts don't much like those who say peak oil demand is inevitable. Can’t say that I blame them. The theory ain’t good for business in the short term  — although taking the appropriate actions now, assuming it is correct, could keep them from driving off a proverbial cliff in the more distant future. Funny thing, many of the people trying to debunk peak oil demand are the same ones who sold Peak Oil — on the supply side — like snake oil last decade. It's like these people just tell you folk what you want to hear, not what you need to hear.

    December 20, 2017, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Crude Reality: The End Of Oil Is A Good Ways Off

    China’s oil imports were up last week, with month-over-month imports increasing by 20 percent. This year, oil demand growth will register well above the 10 year average.

    December 13, 2017, 9:03 AM MST

  • Analysis: Sunny Days Ahead For Duvernay Shale Oil

    It may be early days for development of the Duvernay shale in Alberta, but it is increasingly looking like the next liquids-rich formation to take off in North America.

    December 11, 2017, 4:33 AM MST

  • CanOils Analysis: Upcoming In Situ Project Capital Intensity

    Since the oil price decline, in situ oilsands producers have been focused on reducing the capital cost of projects, particularly those that are waiting to come onstream. CanOils conducted an overview on 36 projects applied for over the last 15 years in order to discover how factors such as timing and market conditions were influencing capital intensity.

    November 29, 2017, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Government Needs To Act Now To Maintain Alberta Advantage

    Alberta needs to get its financial house in order.

    November 27, 2017, 10:11 AM MST

  • Analysis: 'Chindia’s' Oil Consumption Could Sorely Disappoint In Longer Term

    China and India are expected to continue to drive global oil consumption higher in the longer term, according to major oil forecasting organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC.

    November 6, 2017, 8:08 AM MST

  • Analysis: NAFTA Is Dead — Act Accordingly

    October 23, 2017, 7:49 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Oil Prices To Jump In 2018

    Crude oil prices should surprise on the upside in 2018, after a decent rebound this year, despite major oil forecasting agencies such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting a weakening of market fundamentals. The Saudi royal family has painted the kingdom into a corner through a series of missteps, making it increasingly important that crude oil prices are fairly high next year to ensure a successful initial public offering (IPO) for family-owned Saudi Aramco.

    October 11, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Politics Could Sabotage Mexico’s Oil Revival

    The future would certainly be bright for Mexico’s oil industry, after years of production decline, if not for politics. After a slow start Mexico’s energy reform is bearing fruit. Interest in the latest oil and gas licensing rounds has jumped significantly from the earlier ones despite continuing low oil prices. Major international oil companies (IOCs) have now won blocks in deepwater Gulf of Mexico, while a substantial new discovery has already been made in its shallow waters.

    September 25, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Comstock And Resolute Lead U.S. Oil And Gas Producers In Opex Cuts In Q2 2017

    Comstock Resources Inc. and Resolute Energy Corp. achieved the highest percentage cut in operating and transportation costs per bbl of oil equivalent among their respective peer groups in the U.S. during Q2 2017, according to new data from Evaluate Energy.

    September 21, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • North American E&P Netbacks Increase 47 Per Cent In Q2 2017 Due To Higher Prices

    Soaring natural gas commodity prices were the primary driver of a dramatic improvement in the netbacks of upstream operators in the U.S. and Canada in Q2 2017, based on new data from CanOils and Evaluate Energy.

    September 20, 2017, 7:35 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Peak Oil Demand Ain’t No Peak Oil

    Peak oil demand has been a hot topic in the past few years, just as Peak Oil from the supply side was a hot topic last decade. Energy economists wrote books exalting Peak Oil, and some of them even ended up being interviewed by the oh so hip Jon Stewart on The Daily Show. But, of course, they were dead wrong. They failed to take into account the role that technological advancement has played in economically opening new oil resource since the beginning of the Oil Age. They failed to foresee the Shale Revolution.

    September 11, 2017, 7:28 AM MDT