Analysis

  • Analysis: Top Geopolitical Hotspots For Crude Oil Through 2019

    As discussed in our last article — Politics to Continue to Drive Crude Prices Through 2019 — Geopolitics Central (GPC) is bullish on WTI crude prices through 2019 partly because we expect a significant rebound in politically-inspired oil production outages. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran should provide a solid base of geopolitical uncertainty, but as of now we do not expect it to lead to a hot war and a massive supply disruption over this period. But there are many more potential sources of disruption to supply, albeit significantly less dramatic, the four most likely ones from our perspective are Iran (new economic sanctions), Libya (election-related violence), Nigeria (militancy in Niger Delta region), and Venezuela (end game).

    January 22, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: AECO Natural Gas — Fifty Per Cent Discounts Don’t Last Forever

    This week’s ARC SnapChart plots the dramatic decline in AECO futures pricing over the past six months. The average futures price from 2018 to 2021 has fallen from $C 2.36/GJ in July to $C 1.57/GJ today. At the current price, a molecule of natural gas in Alberta is trading at a 50 per cent markdown to Louisiana’s Henry Hub.

    January 17, 2018, 7:54 AM MST

  • Analysis: Politics To Continue To Drive Crude Prices Through 2019

    The jump in international benchmark crude prices in the fourth quarter of last year surprised most oil forecasters. Here at Geopolitics Central (GPC), we expected spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to rebound, having previously predicted the price to average US$62.50/bbl this year (DOB, Oct. 11, 2017) — but failed to see the speed in which prices would increase.

    January 8, 2018, 9:32 AM MST

  • Analysis: Revolutions Fell Big Trees – An Ode To Peak Oil Demand

    People around these parts don't much like those who say peak oil demand is inevitable. Can’t say that I blame them. The theory ain’t good for business in the short term  — although taking the appropriate actions now, assuming it is correct, could keep them from driving off a proverbial cliff in the more distant future. Funny thing, many of the people trying to debunk peak oil demand are the same ones who sold Peak Oil — on the supply side — like snake oil last decade. It's like these people just tell you folk what you want to hear, not what you need to hear.

    December 20, 2017, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Crude Reality: The End Of Oil Is A Good Ways Off

    China’s oil imports were up last week, with month-over-month imports increasing by 20 percent. This year, oil demand growth will register well above the 10 year average.

    December 13, 2017, 9:03 AM MST

  • Analysis: Sunny Days Ahead For Duvernay Shale Oil

    It may be early days for development of the Duvernay shale in Alberta, but it is increasingly looking like the next liquids-rich formation to take off in North America.

    December 11, 2017, 4:33 AM MST

  • CanOils Analysis: Upcoming In Situ Project Capital Intensity

    Since the oil price decline, in situ oilsands producers have been focused on reducing the capital cost of projects, particularly those that are waiting to come onstream. CanOils conducted an overview on 36 projects applied for over the last 15 years in order to discover how factors such as timing and market conditions were influencing capital intensity.

    November 29, 2017, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Government Needs To Act Now To Maintain Alberta Advantage

    Alberta needs to get its financial house in order.

    November 27, 2017, 10:11 AM MST

  • Analysis: 'Chindia’s' Oil Consumption Could Sorely Disappoint In Longer Term

    China and India are expected to continue to drive global oil consumption higher in the longer term, according to major oil forecasting organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC.

    November 6, 2017, 8:08 AM MST

  • Analysis: NAFTA Is Dead — Act Accordingly

    October 23, 2017, 7:49 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Oil Prices To Jump In 2018

    Crude oil prices should surprise on the upside in 2018, after a decent rebound this year, despite major oil forecasting agencies such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting a weakening of market fundamentals. The Saudi royal family has painted the kingdom into a corner through a series of missteps, making it increasingly important that crude oil prices are fairly high next year to ensure a successful initial public offering (IPO) for family-owned Saudi Aramco.

    October 11, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Politics Could Sabotage Mexico’s Oil Revival

    The future would certainly be bright for Mexico’s oil industry, after years of production decline, if not for politics. After a slow start Mexico’s energy reform is bearing fruit. Interest in the latest oil and gas licensing rounds has jumped significantly from the earlier ones despite continuing low oil prices. Major international oil companies (IOCs) have now won blocks in deepwater Gulf of Mexico, while a substantial new discovery has already been made in its shallow waters.

    September 25, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Comstock And Resolute Lead U.S. Oil And Gas Producers In Opex Cuts In Q2 2017

    Comstock Resources Inc. and Resolute Energy Corp. achieved the highest percentage cut in operating and transportation costs per bbl of oil equivalent among their respective peer groups in the U.S. during Q2 2017, according to new data from Evaluate Energy.

    September 21, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • North American E&P Netbacks Increase 47 Per Cent In Q2 2017 Due To Higher Prices

    Soaring natural gas commodity prices were the primary driver of a dramatic improvement in the netbacks of upstream operators in the U.S. and Canada in Q2 2017, based on new data from CanOils and Evaluate Energy.

    September 20, 2017, 7:35 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Peak Oil Demand Ain’t No Peak Oil

    Peak oil demand has been a hot topic in the past few years, just as Peak Oil from the supply side was a hot topic last decade. Energy economists wrote books exalting Peak Oil, and some of them even ended up being interviewed by the oh so hip Jon Stewart on The Daily Show. But, of course, they were dead wrong. They failed to take into account the role that technological advancement has played in economically opening new oil resource since the beginning of the Oil Age. They failed to foresee the Shale Revolution.

    September 11, 2017, 7:28 AM MDT

  • Sponsored Content: Getting ‘Sale Ready’ – Laying Groundwork Early Pays Big Dividends

    As recovery in the energy sector remains uncertain amid lacklustre oil and gas prices and lack of consensus about the mid to long-term outlook, increased industry consolidation appears likely. 

    September 5, 2017, 7:19 AM MDT

  • M&A Value In First Half Of 2017 Hits Record High

    The total enterprise value of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry in the first half of 2017 was approximately $36.1 billion, up 139 per cent from the $15.1 billion recorded in the first six months of 2016. This is the highest first half total of M&A value in the Canadian oil and natural gas sector since Sayer Energy Advisors began tracking these statistics in 1993.  

    August 30, 2017, 9:10 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Canadian Energy Could Be Collateral Damage To A NAFTA Failure

    President Donald Trump’s negative outlook for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as expressed during his Arizona rally on Tuesday should have come as no big shock. The U.S. had already thrown down the gauntlet on August 16, the first day of the first round of NAFTA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico. Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s top trade advisor, said the U.S. is not interested in “a mere tweaking” of the 23-year-old trade pact.

    August 24, 2017, 12 AM MDT

  • CanOils Analysis: Almost 18,000 Boe Per Day Listed For Sale In Canada In July 2017

    CanOils latest M&A review shows that a total of 17,660 boe per day was put up for sale in Canada via publicly disclosed assets for sale in July.

    August 18, 2017, 5:55 AM MDT

  • CanOils Analysis: TSX Companies Hedged 120,000 Bbl Per Day More Oil Heading Into Q2

    The 54 active hedgers (1) among the TSX-listed oil and gas producers went into the second quarter with hedging contracts that covered a total volume of almost 737,000 bbls per day of oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production and 4.4 bcf per day of natural gas production, analysis from the CanOils hedging database has revealed.

    August 10, 2017, 8:06 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Impact Of Western Canada’s New Oil Pipeline Pinch On Price Differentials

    The Western Canadian oil market is now short of pipeline capacity, and this situation could persist through 2030, depending if industry is able to push major pipeline projects forward in this politically-charged environment. In 2016, regional oil supply was basically in balance with pipeline takeaway capacity. But continuing investment, driven by the last round of high oil prices, is pushing production substantially higher this year and next, while substantial new pipeline capacity cannot come online until the end of this decade, at the earliest.

    August 10, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Impact Of New U.S. Economic Sanctions On Venezuela

    The end game is near for Venezuela. President Nicolas Maduro and his fellow Chavistas continue to cling to power despite economic collapse and widespread opposition to their government. In response to anti-government opposition, Maduro has organized a vote at the end of the month for a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution. The opposition believes the new constitution will allow President Maduro to turn Venezuela into a single-party, authoritarian state.

    July 27, 2017, 12 AM MDT

  • Debt Financings Drive First Half 2017 Financings To Record High

    A total of $17.9 billion in equity and debt was raised by the Canadian oil and natural gas industry in the first six months of 2017, representing the highest six-month total on record. Sayer Energy Advisors has been tracking these statistics for the last 24 years. This is a 152 per cent increase from the $7.1 billion recorded over the same time period in 2016. 

    July 26, 2017, 8:22 AM MDT

  • EIA: Reporting U.S. Companies See Oil And Gas Reserves Decline For Second Consecutive Year

    Proved oil and gas reserves for 67 U.S.-listed companies fell for the second year in a row in 2016, according to fresh analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using Evaluate Energy data.

    June 15, 2017, 7:29 AM MDT

  • Number Of Dealers Increase In 2016 Despite Drop In Total Financings

    A total of $15.5 billion in capital was raised by the Canadian oil and natural gas industry in 2016, down 11% from the $17.4 billion raised in 2015. 

    May 31, 2017, 7:16 AM MDT