Analysis

  • Analysis: Energy Supply And The Future Of The Oil And Gas Industry

    How will society actually meet its energy needs in the coming decades? 

    September 4, 2018, 7:23 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time For Feds To Go Back To Pipeline Drawing Board

    Blame me, kinda.

    August 31, 2018, 6:01 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time To Secure Canada’s Oil Security

    The prominent Calgary-based energy analyst Peter Tertzakian was correct to raise Canadian oil security as a serious issue and recommend construction of a west-east pipeline to alleviate this threat in recent interviews.

    August 27, 2018, 7:51 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Canadian Pawn Takes King In Saudi Game of Thrones

    Kudos to the Trudeau government for standing up to Saudi Arabian blackmail. Thousands upon thousands of Canadians paid the ultimate price during the two world wars to protect democracy and human rights, and the least our generation can do is suffer minor economic inconvenience to stand up to the repressive Saudi regime.

    August 9, 2018, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The ‘Climate’ For Unconventional Oil And Gas Development Across Canada — Where Are We, And Why?

    Unconventional hydrocarbon development — extracting oil and gas from low-permeability reservoirs — generally requires horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. 

    August 7, 2018, 6:28 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Natural Gas Debate

    “Natural gas is a bridge to a lower carbon future; demand will grow for decades to come” asserted the debater.  Her opponent snapped back “natural gas is a bridge to nowhere. Low cost wind and solar power backed-up with batteries will replace natural gas sooner than anyone expects.”

    August 1, 2018, 3:33 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Three Scenarios For A Strait Of Hormuz Closure

    The rhetoric has been flying this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Trump as much as threatened nuclear annihilation on the Islamic Republic in a caps filled Tweet in response to Rouhani telling a gathering of diplomats in Tehran that war with Iran would be “the mother of all wars.” The U.S. president chose to ignore the second part of the Iranian president’s sentence in which he added “… and peace with Iran is the mother of all peace.”

    July 26, 2018, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Misguided Output Forecasts Harm Canadian Oilpatch

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) released the 2018 edition of its Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation report last month. It is a very useful report in some ways, but unfortunately the crude forecasts in these reports have long suffered from myopia.

    July 16, 2018, 7:58 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Is The ‘Shale Revolution’ Working For Oil?

    Ten plus years ago, we heard about the “Shale Revolution” — the realization that horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing were changing the face of the oil industry, unleashing huge new supplies of gas and oil from low-permeability (shale and tight) reservoirs. 

    July 9, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Oil Prices To The Stratosphere?

    There is a damned good reason international benchmark crude prices have been rocketing higher since so-called OPEC+ —  the 14 OPEC members and 10 non-OPEC countries restricting crude production since the beginning of 2017 —  agreed to raise output on June 22: a potential supply crunch late this year or early next year due to yet another misguided policy by U.S. President Donald Trump.

    July 3, 2018, 9:04 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Throw Mexico, Not Oil Industry, Under Trump Trade Bus

    There may be more prominent targets in U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, such as China and the European Union, but Canada and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have recently been the primary recipients of Trump administration vitriol.  

    June 25, 2018, 7 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Canadian Oilsands Producers Continue To Keep Spending Levels Below Cash Flow

    Analysis by CanOils sheds interesting new light on the overall appetite for capital investment among Canadian producers — in the era before and after the oil price downturn — with a subset of major oilsands operators continuing to restrain investment into major new projects due to weaker Canadian oil prices caused by a lack of market access.

    June 15, 2018, 7:01 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Pipeline Aside, Here’s What The Oil And Gas Industry Really Needs To Focus On

    Whether it is limited pipeline infrastructure, price volatility or regulatory pressures, Canadian oil and gas companies continue to face a number of challenges that make it more difficult to operate in today’s environment.

    June 1, 2018, 8:25 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Alberta’s Export Ban A Bad Idea

    It was an interesting weekend.

    April 24, 2018, 7:59 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Alberta Should Let Feds Lead On TMX Ultimatum

    The CEO of Kinder Morgan Steve Kean said investment in the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project (TMX) “may be untenable for a private party to undertake” during his company’s first quarter earnings call on April 18.

    April 20, 2018, 10:18 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Light/Heavy Spread Expected To Average US$15-$20 For 2018

    After several months of consternation, Canadian light-heavy crude oil price spreads look like they have begun to more convincingly contract.

    April 18, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: How Do Renewables Stack Up With Natural Gas?

    It is a new narrative. Electrons generated from wind and solar are the cheapest available.  Renewable energy is undergoing a remarkable fall in costs that will displace all other systems, including natural gas. The latter claim is too early to call.

    April 18, 2018, 6:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Prices To Strengthen Through Next Year

    International benchmark crude prices played out basically as expected by Geopolitics Central (GPC) in the first quarter of the year, with a few interesting twists on the market fundamentals front and growing signs of ongoing Russia-OPEC co-operation encouraging us to maintain our current short-term outlook.

    April 9, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: A Trade War Boon for Canadian Oil Industry?

    When I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

    March 22, 2018, 9:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Future Is Less About Oil Prices Than Innovation

    Last week, 4,500 people from the global energy industry congregated in Houston, Texas for the annual IHS Markit CERAWeek conference. In every conference room and meeting location, conference attendees buzzed with enthusiastic conversation about change. Here are the major themes that dominated the discussion.

    March 14, 2018, 3:30 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time To Hitch Alberta To LTO Wagon

    It’s time for the Alberta government to think outside the box.

    March 12, 2018, 3:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Future Of OPEC And Oil Prices

    The Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) was born in a time of plenty, prospered over a period of real or perceived scarcity, and will likely die in the distant future as the world shifts away from high-carbon energy resources.

    February 26, 2018, 3:47 AM MST

  • Analysis: A Modest Proposal To End Western Canada’s Railway Pinch

    A new Western Canadian oil pipeline pinch had been widely predicted for the fourth quarter of last year. The corresponding increase in regional oil price differentials was expected to be gradual and moderate, with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) coming to the rescue of oil shippers, just as they did earlier this decade.

    February 5, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Sayer’s Outlook For 2018 M&A Activity

    In spite of prolonged low commodity prices, when considering only the total value of mergers and acquisitions (“M&A”) activity, 2017 was an above average year for M&A activity in the Canadian oil patch.  While the nature of transactions may change somewhat, even with the worst of the most recent oil price onslaught apparently behind us, Sayer Energy Advisors forecasts that there will be significantly less M&A activity, in total dollar value, in 2018 than there was in 2017.

    January 25, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • CGAI Series: Energy As A Service — Going Beyond Energy Supply

    As a major natural resource provider, Canada has approached its transition to a low-carbon economy very much in the light of its energy production and supply. Its discussion about climate change has been dominated by worries about pipelines, oilsands, shale gas and uranium production without much thought about the other side of energy: usage and consumption.

    January 23, 2018, 6 AM MST