Analysis

  • Tertzakian: Oil Is Back — But, Post-Pandemic, Where Will It Come From?

    The devastating effects of the pandemic-forced production shut-ins could put Canada and the United States on a regressive path toward dependency on “foreign oil,” a historically disparaging term.

    May 21, 2020, 7:25 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shrewd Move By Irving Oil An Indictment On The Feds

    Irving Oil Limited’s recent move to source western Canadian crude oil for its 320,000 bbl/d Saint John refinery, the largest in the country, using foreign tanker ships rather than rail or non-existent pipeline is nothing short of genius and an indictment on Canadian energy policy (see Irving Oil Applies To CTA For Tankers To Ship Canadian Crude To Its Saint John Refinery).

    May 13, 2020, 6:23 AM MDT

  • Will We See An Increase In Consolidation In 2020?

    In an article penned by Sayer Energy Advisors in April of 2018 we posed the question; “Will Increased Strategic Alternatives Processes Kick-Start Consolidation?”.

    April 29, 2020, 7:20 AM MDT

  • Tertzakian: Post-Pandemic Energy Realities

    What does our energy future look like? Right now, I feel like I’m already in the future, in some sci-fi movie. You know the genre, where people are trapped in a cyber-stoked parallel reality.

    April 21, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Energy Workers Can Build The Future. Here’s How

    Like many concerned Canadians in this time of unprecedented disruption, I’ve been thinking often of my grandparents, who lived through a Great Depression and a World War.

    April 20, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Highest Cost Oil Producers In North America

    California is home to two of North America’s highest cost oil producers by far according to latest data from Evaluate Energy.

    April 16, 2020, 10:36 AM MDT

  • Evaluate Energy Launches Global Petroleum Demand Model To Forecast COVID-19 Impact On Markets

    Evaluate Energy, the leading provider of essential data to Oil & Gas and Renewable Energy markets, is launching a new forecasting tool to assess the impact of COVID-19 on global petroleum demand.

    April 15, 2020, 10:49 AM MDT

  • Lowest Cost Oil Producers In North America

    North Dakota’s Bakken formation, the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford shale are home to some of North America’s lowest cost oil producers according to the latest data from Evaluate Energy.

    April 15, 2020, 7:55 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 5 – Putin’s Masterstroke

    Despite misplaying his hand horribly, and rather remarkably being outsmarted by both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin made virtue of adversity by agreeing to the historic OPEC+ deal finalized on April 12. This has allowed him to relay the groundwork for his strategy to win the price war against the U.S. shale industry.

    April 14, 2020, 7:59 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Hedging Data Illustrates Risks Taken By North American Oil Producers

    A handful of North American oil companies were happy to take on significantly more risk in 2019 in their pricing strategy per barrel – and would have suffered greatly in the price drop of early 2020.

    April 14, 2020, 8:55 AM MDT

  • DOB’s Pandemic Survey Results, Part 2: Cost Cutting Happening Rapidly Across Industry

    Canadian oil and gas companies are rapidly adjusting their cost structures to remain viable as the collapse in oil prices resulting from the drop in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic hammers cash flows, according to the results of the Daily Oil Bulletin Pandemic Survey.

    April 9, 2020, 9:22 AM MDT

  • Canada Leads Global Shut-In List; Will See 1.1 Million Bbls/d Halt: Rystad

    Canada will likely shut-in more than 1.1 million bbls/d of production in Q2 2020 as COVID-19 devastates global oil demand and producing countries fail to agree on output cuts, says Rystad Energy AS.

    April 9, 2020, 9:24 AM MDT

  • Tertzakian: Colluding On Oil Production Is A Game That Can’t Be Played Anymore

    The 2020 Olympics have been deferred, but the Geopolitical Oil Games are full on. Who will stand on the gold podium? Saudi Arabia, Russia or the United States? Will countries like Canada, Brazil or Norway even place?

    April 8, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • 2020 – A Lesson in Real Crises

    Everybody in the world (this statement has meaning like it never did before) understands that humanity faces a real, immediate crisis — the COVID-19 pandemic.  And world economies face another less deadly but still profound crisis caused by the pandemic and the Russia / OPEC price war that has upset global oil markets.

    March 31, 2020, 12 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 4 – Canada As Collateral Damage

    In the first two articles of this series I put forth the thesis that the current oil price war was instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the goal of causing substantial permanent damage to the U.S. shale industry, and the third article discussed three possible wildcards related to my thesis.

    March 30, 2020, 6:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 3 – Major Wildcards

    The first two articles in this series explained the rationale for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oil price war, the second article in more detail than the first. Before delving into three major wildcards that could impact Putin’s price war, both in a positive and negative manner, I have one matter I wish to discuss related to the central thesis, based on comments by a few friends and colleagues over the past week.

    March 27, 2020, 4:52 AM MDT

  • M&A Value Falls To Lowest Level Since 2003

    The total enterprise value of merger and acquisition (“M&A”) transactions in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry dropped 34 per cent, falling to approximately $8.0 billion in 2019 from the $12.1 billion recorded in the previous year.

    March 25, 2020, 8:31 AM MDT

  • Western Canada Oil Production Cuts Imminent Due To Storage At Full Capacity: Rystad

    Industry must cut Western Canada’s crude production by some 11 per cent for April, says Rystad Energy AS, as the country is days away from running out of available storage capacity given the large global supply surplus created by the COVID-19 demand deconstruction and an ongoing Saudi-Russia oil price war.

    March 25, 2020, 8:30 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 2 – Clash Of The Oil Titans

    In the first of the Oil Price War 4.0 series, it was argued in a general sort of way that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s price war would likely be longer and deeper than the three previously started by Saudi Arabia.

    March 23, 2020, 9:10 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 1 – Longer and Deeper?

    I have worked as a world oil analyst during all four crude oil price wars since the creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, having started my career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in the mid-‘80s. Based on what I’ve learned about oil price wars over this period, we should batten down the hatches, as this one could be the longest and deepest of them all.

    March 18, 2020, 1:33 PM MDT

  • Opinions On Energy And Environment In Canada Part 3: How To Chart A Positive Path Forward On Energy And Environment

    With increasingly stringent public health measures across the country to combat COVID-19, Canadians are understandably less focused on energy and environment than usual. But the precipitous drop in global oil prices and the collapse in Canadian energy stocks underscore the tight link between energy and global circumstances.

    March 17, 2020, 10:05 AM MDT

  • Economic Reconciliation The Wrong Way

    Phil Fontaine, living legend and former three-term national chief of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), has said on numerous occasions that reconciliation is not possible without narrowing the economic gap between Indigenous peoples and the rest of Canadians.

    February 27, 2020, 9:54 AM MST

  • Total Oil & Natural Gas Financings Up Slightly In 2019

    The total amount of capital raised in the Canadian oil and natural gas industry in 2019 slightly increased to $5.36 billion compared to the previous year’s record low of $5.29 billion.

    February 26, 2020, 8:33 AM MST

  • Opinions On Energy And Environment In Canada Part 2: Divisions Exist, But Canadians And Energy/Environment Leaders Aren’t Necessarily Polarized

    Seeing the protests in support of the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs opposed to the Coastal GasLink pipeline, you might think the country is hopelessly polarized over energy and environment. Canadians’ views on oil and gas development, pipelines, Indigenous rights and climate action seem ever-more divergent. So do those of energy and environmental leaders.

    February 18, 2020, 3:54 AM MST

  • Danger Of An Anti-Fracking U.S. President

    Results from the Democratic Party’s presidential caucus in Iowa may be muddled, but it is crystal clear that two of the front runners for the nomination, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, will do all in their power to shut down the U.S. shale industry if they become president.

    February 10, 2020, 12 AM MST