Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Analysis: Crude Prices To Strengthen Through Next Year

    International benchmark crude prices played out basically as expected by Geopolitics Central (GPC) in the first quarter of the year, with a few interesting twists on the market fundamentals front and growing signs of ongoing Russia-OPEC co-operation encouraging us to maintain our current short-term outlook.

    April 9, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: A Trade War Boon for Canadian Oil Industry?

    When I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

    March 22, 2018, 9:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time To Hitch Alberta To LTO Wagon

    It’s time for the Alberta government to think outside the box.

    March 12, 2018, 3:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: The Future Of OPEC And Oil Prices

    The Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) was born in a time of plenty, prospered over a period of real or perceived scarcity, and will likely die in the distant future as the world shifts away from high-carbon energy resources.

    February 26, 2018, 3:47 AM MST

  • Analysis: How The Feds Can Win The Pipeline War

    The pipeline war between Alberta and British Columbia is getting hot, and it will get a lot hotter in the next few years if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pushes through expansion of Kinder Morgan Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline. The legal and regulatory challenges B.C.’s New Democratic Party (NDP)-Green Party government is throwing up against Trans Mountain expansion (TMX) is only the first round of defence, and a relatively weak one at that.

    February 9, 2018, 9:19 AM MST

  • Analysis: A Modest Proposal To End Western Canada’s Railway Pinch

    A new Western Canadian oil pipeline pinch had been widely predicted for the fourth quarter of last year. The corresponding increase in regional oil price differentials was expected to be gradual and moderate, with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) coming to the rescue of oil shippers, just as they did earlier this decade.

    February 5, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Top Geopolitical Hotspots For Crude Oil Through 2019

    As discussed in our last article — Politics to Continue to Drive Crude Prices Through 2019 — Geopolitics Central (GPC) is bullish on WTI crude prices through 2019 partly because we expect a significant rebound in politically-inspired oil production outages. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran should provide a solid base of geopolitical uncertainty, but as of now we do not expect it to lead to a hot war and a massive supply disruption over this period. But there are many more potential sources of disruption to supply, albeit significantly less dramatic, the four most likely ones from our perspective are Iran (new economic sanctions), Libya (election-related violence), Nigeria (militancy in Niger Delta region), and Venezuela (end game).

    January 22, 2018, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Politics To Continue To Drive Crude Prices Through 2019

    The jump in international benchmark crude prices in the fourth quarter of last year surprised most oil forecasters. Here at Geopolitics Central (GPC), we expected spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to rebound, having previously predicted the price to average US$62.50/bbl this year (DOB, Oct. 11, 2017) — but failed to see the speed in which prices would increase.

    January 8, 2018, 9:32 AM MST

  • Analysis: Revolutions Fell Big Trees – An Ode To Peak Oil Demand

    People around these parts don't much like those who say peak oil demand is inevitable. Can’t say that I blame them. The theory ain’t good for business in the short term  — although taking the appropriate actions now, assuming it is correct, could keep them from driving off a proverbial cliff in the more distant future. Funny thing, many of the people trying to debunk peak oil demand are the same ones who sold Peak Oil — on the supply side — like snake oil last decade. It's like these people just tell you folk what you want to hear, not what you need to hear.

    December 20, 2017, 6 AM MST

  • Analysis: Sunny Days Ahead For Duvernay Shale Oil

    It may be early days for development of the Duvernay shale in Alberta, but it is increasingly looking like the next liquids-rich formation to take off in North America.

    December 11, 2017, 4:33 AM MST

  • Analysis: Government Needs To Act Now To Maintain Alberta Advantage

    Alberta needs to get its financial house in order.

    November 27, 2017, 10:11 AM MST

  • Analysis: 'Chindia’s' Oil Consumption Could Sorely Disappoint In Longer Term

    China and India are expected to continue to drive global oil consumption higher in the longer term, according to major oil forecasting organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC.

    November 6, 2017, 8:08 AM MST

  • Analysis: NAFTA Is Dead — Act Accordingly

    October 23, 2017, 7:49 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Oil Prices To Jump In 2018

    Crude oil prices should surprise on the upside in 2018, after a decent rebound this year, despite major oil forecasting agencies such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting a weakening of market fundamentals. The Saudi royal family has painted the kingdom into a corner through a series of missteps, making it increasingly important that crude oil prices are fairly high next year to ensure a successful initial public offering (IPO) for family-owned Saudi Aramco.

    October 11, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Politics Could Sabotage Mexico’s Oil Revival

    The future would certainly be bright for Mexico’s oil industry, after years of production decline, if not for politics. After a slow start Mexico’s energy reform is bearing fruit. Interest in the latest oil and gas licensing rounds has jumped significantly from the earlier ones despite continuing low oil prices. Major international oil companies (IOCs) have now won blocks in deepwater Gulf of Mexico, while a substantial new discovery has already been made in its shallow waters.

    September 25, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Peak Oil Demand Ain’t No Peak Oil

    Peak oil demand has been a hot topic in the past few years, just as Peak Oil from the supply side was a hot topic last decade. Energy economists wrote books exalting Peak Oil, and some of them even ended up being interviewed by the oh so hip Jon Stewart on The Daily Show. But, of course, they were dead wrong. They failed to take into account the role that technological advancement has played in economically opening new oil resource since the beginning of the Oil Age. They failed to foresee the Shale Revolution.

    September 11, 2017, 7:28 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Canadian Energy Could Be Collateral Damage To A NAFTA Failure

    President Donald Trump’s negative outlook for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as expressed during his Arizona rally on Tuesday should have come as no big shock. The U.S. had already thrown down the gauntlet on August 16, the first day of the first round of NAFTA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico. Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s top trade advisor, said the U.S. is not interested in “a mere tweaking” of the 23-year-old trade pact.

    August 24, 2017, 12 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Impact Of Western Canada’s New Oil Pipeline Pinch On Price Differentials

    The Western Canadian oil market is now short of pipeline capacity, and this situation could persist through 2030, depending if industry is able to push major pipeline projects forward in this politically-charged environment. In 2016, regional oil supply was basically in balance with pipeline takeaway capacity. But continuing investment, driven by the last round of high oil prices, is pushing production substantially higher this year and next, while substantial new pipeline capacity cannot come online until the end of this decade, at the earliest.

    August 10, 2017, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Impact Of New U.S. Economic Sanctions On Venezuela

    The end game is near for Venezuela. President Nicolas Maduro and his fellow Chavistas continue to cling to power despite economic collapse and widespread opposition to their government. In response to anti-government opposition, Maduro has organized a vote at the end of the month for a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution. The opposition believes the new constitution will allow President Maduro to turn Venezuela into a single-party, authoritarian state.

    July 27, 2017, 12 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Rapid Rise In Iraqi Crude Oil Production Likely A Thing Of The Past

    Iraq’s crude oil production has made impressive gains to record high levels in recent years despite ongoing political dysfunction and the Islamic State controlling as much as a third of the country’s territory since the middle of 2014. But future production gains are in doubt for a combination of political and economic reasons, and Iraq could in fact see a decline in its crude oil production if ethnic and intra-ethnic rivalries were to lead to a multi-sided civil war.

    September 7, 2016, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Centrifugal Forces Endangering Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production

    Nigeria has long suffered from ethnic-related strife. Much of it has been in the Niger Delta region in the southeast of the country, home to most of its oil and gas resources. The latest bout of strife in the Delta, much like earlier ones, has caused a substantial drop in the country’s crude oil production, which is in gradual decline anyways.

    August 16, 2016, 7:29 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Venezuela’s A Powder Keg That Just Won’t Blow

    Venezuela is in political and economic crisis. President Nicolas Maduro and his fellow Chavistas continue to cling to power despite the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) securing a massive two-thirds supermajority in last December’s parliamentary elections. Economically, the country is suffering riots and lootings due to shortages of food, medicine, other basic goods and electric power.

    July 19, 2016, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: House Of Saud A House Of Cards?

    To paraphrase the great American author and humorist Mark Twain, reports of the House of Saud’s death have been greatly exaggerated. Saudi Arabia has survived several bouts of insecurity in the past. These include the occupation of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, being tarred ‘liberal apostates’ by the Sahwa in the 1990s, and the al-Qaeda threat in the early 2000s.

    July 6, 2016, 8:24 AM MDT

Dear user, please be aware that we use cookies to help users navigate our website content and to help us understand how we can improve the user experience. If you have ideas for how we can improve our services, we’d love to hear from you. Click here to email us. By continuing to browse you agree to our use of cookies. Please see our Privacy & Cookie Usage Policy to learn more.