Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 102 – Bet On Hydrogen And Geothermal Instead!

    In Part One of this series, a case was made for the Alberta government adopting industrial policy to guide strategic investment decisions to successfully guide economic diversification in the province, after numerous failures under the laissez-faire approach.

    March 31, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 101 — Anything But Nukes!

    Last autumn I wrote a number of articles for the DOB arguing that the Alberta government should adopt industrial policy-like long-term strategic planning to successfully guide economic diversification in the province as our debt mountain grows, the energy transition gains steam, and financial space for additional investment debacles narrows.

    March 22, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shell’s Scenarios Tell Alberta Oil And Gas A Story

    Royal Dutch Shell released its latest round of long-term global energy scenarios earlier this month, conveniently pushing the outlook period from 2070 to 2100, with the potential of cataclysmic climate change looming large over the remainder of this century.

    February 24, 2021, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Could Canada Miss The Hydrogen Export Bus?

    The Trudeau government has great expectations for the export of Canadian-produced clean hydrogen in the more distant future.

    February 10, 2021, 7:25 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Russia Is Gaining Control Over OPEC+

    In Putin’s Masterstroke, the fifth and final article in my Oil Price War 4.0 Series last April, I argued President Vladimir Putin agreeing to the massive output cuts at the historic OPEC+ meeting that month did not signify capitulation and the end of his price war to permanently maim the U.S. shale oil industry, but merely a tactical retreat.

    January 27, 2021, 7:31 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Moving On Quickly Could Cut Alberta’s Losses On Keystone XL Bet

    Joe Biden will be cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline expansion (KXL) as one of his first acts after being inaugurated president of the U.S., based on news reports over the weekend, costing Alberta taxpayers at least part of the UCP government’s $1.5-billion equity investment in the project, and possibly much more.

    January 19, 2021, 3:09 PM MST

  • Lauerman: Oilsands Producers Should Take Advantage Of Respite

    The hard hit western Canadian oilsands industry has seen some rays of sunshine in recent weeks, after suffering a downpour over much of the past six years. Unfortunately, this is no more than the calm before a far more powerful storm. As a result, oilsands producers should use this respite to better position themselves for long-term survival, not party like it’s New Year’s Eve 2013.

    December 22, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Canada’s Clean Energy Supercluster To The Rescue?

    Canada is at an economic crossroads.

    December 9, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Time For The Next-Gen Alberta Advantage

    Economic prosperity is a privilege, not a right.

    November 30, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Will Blue Hydrogen Come To Dominate Alberta’s Gas Strategy?

    The Kenney government deserves credit for developing a strategy in an attempt to boost markets for natural gas produced in Alberta. The gas industry has long been an important contributor to our economy, and as recently as fifteen years ago, prior to the U.S. Shale Gas Revolution, dominated provincial royalties from non-renewable resources.

    November 23, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Feds Must Invest Big In Alberta’s Clean Energy Future

    Only rarely do I read an article and think to myself, damn, I wish I wrote that. But, in late September, Eric Reguly, a business and economics columnist for The Globe and Mail, wrote an article entitled “Canada needs a new breed of corporate champion, and clean energy is the place to look,” which I wish I had written, and will borrow from here with appropriate attribution.

    October 26, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Another Oil Price Boom On The Horizon?

    The Daily Oil Bulletin published several articles about the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020, its latest long-term scenarios, when released on Oct. 13. And by simply glancing at their titles I knew which one of them would be the most read — IEA Warns That Ample Global Crude Supply ‘Should Not Be Taken For Granted’ — although I must admit to being surprised it only came in second place among all the articles published in DOB that day.

    October 15, 2020, 7:32 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Time For Alberta To Build A Cleaner Economy

    The halcyon days for Alberta oil and gas are over, the oilsands boom is dead, and it’s time for the provincial government to accept this new reality — rather than burying its head in the sand and/or fruitlessly fighting it — and adjust to make the best of an otherwise bad situation.

    September 29, 2020, 8:35 AM MDT

  • Energy-Ag Industry Summit Promotes Next-Gen Alberta Advantage

    There was buzz in the virtual air during the recent Growing Forward Together: Energy/Ag Industry Summit, as more than 125 participants launched an important new initiative: to reimagine and reinvigorate the Alberta Advantage.

    September 17, 2020, 12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Blue Hydrogen Better Bet For Alberta Than Petchems

    The Alberta government has had a long and generally dismal record of diversifying away from oil and gas since the oil price shocks of the 1970s made the industry the cornerstone of the provincial economy. One of the few successes has been petrochemicals, whereas the most costly failures include a cellphone company, hazardous waste treatment plant, a pulp mill and a magnesium smelter.

    September 10, 2020, 10:12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 4 — Impact On Canadian Oil And Gas

    Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee for the U.S. presidency, upped the ante for his Clean Energy Revolution yet again on August 11, by selecting California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Harris is a hardcore backer of the Green New Deal — and supporter of a fracking ban as well —  having sponsored a draft legislative proposal related to it with Democrat firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the first-term House Representative from New York State.

    August 26, 2020, 7:33 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 3 – Impact On Energy Markets

    The first part of this four-part series explored Joe Biden’s plan to combat global climate change, while the second part identified his probable policies for the U.S. oil and gas industry upon becoming president.

    August 12, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 2 – Policies For U.S. Oil And Gas Industry

    Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the U.S. presidency, upped the ante for his Clean Energy Revolution on July 14, the day after part one of this four-part series was published.

    July 27, 2020, 7:19 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 1 – Clean Energy Revolution

    Joe Biden has made it crystal clear that the U.S. will once again lead the battle against climate change if he is elected president in November. He has been less forthright about his plans for the U.S. oil and gas industry, by all appearances to avoid alienating the Progressive wing within his own Democratic Party.

    July 13, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: King Salman Has Painted Saudi Arabia Into A Corner — Part 2

    Mohammad bin Salman’s (MBS) primary method of stoking the embers of secular Saudi nationalism has been his regional Cold War with Iran, as he has long cast the Islamic Republic as the root of all problems in the Middle East, arguing political — the battle for regional hegemonyand theological — with the Saudis primarily Sunni Muslims and Iranians despised Shiite ones — differences make negotiations between them impossible. MBS has compared Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to Adolph Hitler and threatened to instigate violence within Iran’s borders.

    June 24, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: King Salman Has Painted Saudi Arabia Into A Corner— Part 1

    King Salman has painted his kingdom into a corner by concentrating power in his matrilineal line of the royal family, and his young and inexperienced son Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) in particular, since ascending the throne in January 2015. By making MBS crown prince in June 2017, after pushing aside two previous princes from other lines of the family, and making his son de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the king has inadvertently made the House of Saud brittle.

    June 23, 2020, 7:32 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Premier Kenney’s Risky Gamble On Keystone XL

    Premier Jason Kenney backstopped TC Energy’s Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline with $7.5 billion of Alberta’s money at the end of March to ensure a positive final investment decision (FID) and construction on the project to start in April.

    May 28, 2020, 5:49 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shrewd Move By Irving Oil An Indictment On The Feds

    Irving Oil Limited’s recent move to source western Canadian crude oil for its 320,000 bbl/d Saint John refinery, the largest in the country, using foreign tanker ships rather than rail or non-existent pipeline is nothing short of genius and an indictment on Canadian energy policy (see Irving Oil Applies To CTA For Tankers To Ship Canadian Crude To Its Saint John Refinery).

    May 13, 2020, 6:23 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 5 – Putin’s Masterstroke

    Despite misplaying his hand horribly, and rather remarkably being outsmarted by both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin made virtue of adversity by agreeing to the historic OPEC+ deal finalized on April 12. This has allowed him to relay the groundwork for his strategy to win the price war against the U.S. shale industry.

    April 14, 2020, 7:59 AM MDT

  • GLJ’s Medium-Term Outlook For Oil And Natural Gas Prices

    Times are presently extremely tough for the global, North American and Canadian oil and gas industries, with the double whammy of COVID-19 demand destruction and oil price war hammering prices lower. But there are reasons for optimism according to Justin Mogck, director of commodities research at Calgary-based GLJ Petroleum Consultants, as of mid-year and through 2025.

    April 13, 2020, 9:53 AM MDT

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