Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 1 – Net Zero And Saudi Arabia

    Canada’s oilsands producers, with their long-life, low-decline mega-resource, hope to be some of the last oil producers standing in a net zero world. How plausible is that given oilsands’ relatively high cost of production and carbon intensity compared to output from other major oil producers around the globe?

    September 23, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Federal Election Meaningless For Canadian Energy Sector

    What a difference two years makes! During the 2019 federal election campaign the Canadian oilpatch still hung on the hope of a Conservative Party victory saving it from the Trudeau government’s climate change agenda.

    August 31, 2021, 8:56 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Helium Is A Nice Niche For Western Canada

    Helium may only be a niche commodity, and a rather opaque one at that, but the noble gas may be the perfect play to help diversify Western Canada’s economy.

    August 9, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Quebec’s Green Hydrogen Export Dreams

    In Could Canada Miss The Hydrogen Export Bus? I argued that Alberta and Quebec, the two provinces with the greatest clean hydrogen aspirations, needed to get moving now to secure a significant share of their most plausible export markets in the more distant future — California and the U.S. Northwest for Alberta and the U.S. Northeast for Quebec.

    July 26, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Kudos To Entrepreneurs Laying The Groundwork For Alberta’s Cleantech Sector

    Some of you readers may have noticed that I focus many of my articles towards Alberta. It’s not as if I have anything against the other major energy producing and exporting provinces in Canada — beautiful British Columbia and Quebec; and salt of the earth Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador. It’s simply a case of being a proud Albertan, concerned about the fate of our province.

    June 21, 2021, 12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Alberta’s Future Series, Part 2 – Surviving The Worst-Case Scenario

    In Part 1 of this two-part series, I explored the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recently released Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, a worst-case scenario for Alberta.

    May 27, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Alberta’s Future Series, Part 1 – Worst-Case Scenario

    In the first decade of this century Alberta was fueled by incredible optimism. Peak oil — on the supply side —reigned supreme, oilsands projects were popping up like mushrooms, while natural gas prices were through the roof. The province was rolling in royalty revenue.

    May 26, 2021, 6:55 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Lessons From Saudi Arabia Series, Part 2 – Focus On Blue Hydrogen

    In Part 1 of this two-part series, I looked at Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) strategy to diversify the Saudi economy, his government’s evolving tactics to monetize its oil and gas resources, and identified both positive and negative lessons Alberta could learn from their efforts over the past five years.

    April 29, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Lessons From Saudi Arabia Series, Part 1 – The Great Transition

    Any longtime reader of my columns in the DOB should know I’m no fan of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, for his despotic ways.

    April 8, 2021, 9:53 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 102 – Bet On Hydrogen And Geothermal Instead!

    In Part One of this series, a case was made for the Alberta government adopting industrial policy to guide strategic investment decisions to successfully guide economic diversification in the province, after numerous failures under the laissez-faire approach.

    March 31, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 101 — Anything But Nukes!

    Last autumn I wrote a number of articles for the DOB arguing that the Alberta government should adopt industrial policy-like long-term strategic planning to successfully guide economic diversification in the province as our debt mountain grows, the energy transition gains steam, and financial space for additional investment debacles narrows.

    March 22, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shell’s Scenarios Tell Alberta Oil And Gas A Story

    Royal Dutch Shell released its latest round of long-term global energy scenarios earlier this month, conveniently pushing the outlook period from 2070 to 2100, with the potential of cataclysmic climate change looming large over the remainder of this century.

    February 24, 2021, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Could Canada Miss The Hydrogen Export Bus?

    The Trudeau government has great expectations for the export of Canadian-produced clean hydrogen in the more distant future.

    February 10, 2021, 7:25 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Russia Is Gaining Control Over OPEC+

    In Putin’s Masterstroke, the fifth and final article in my Oil Price War 4.0 Series last April, I argued President Vladimir Putin agreeing to the massive output cuts at the historic OPEC+ meeting that month did not signify capitulation and the end of his price war to permanently maim the U.S. shale oil industry, but merely a tactical retreat.

    January 27, 2021, 7:31 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Moving On Quickly Could Cut Alberta’s Losses On Keystone XL Bet

    Joe Biden will be cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline expansion (KXL) as one of his first acts after being inaugurated president of the U.S., based on news reports over the weekend, costing Alberta taxpayers at least part of the UCP government’s $1.5-billion equity investment in the project, and possibly much more.

    January 19, 2021, 3:09 PM MST

  • Lauerman: Oilsands Producers Should Take Advantage Of Respite

    The hard hit western Canadian oilsands industry has seen some rays of sunshine in recent weeks, after suffering a downpour over much of the past six years. Unfortunately, this is no more than the calm before a far more powerful storm. As a result, oilsands producers should use this respite to better position themselves for long-term survival, not party like it’s New Year’s Eve 2013.

    December 22, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Canada’s Clean Energy Supercluster To The Rescue?

    Canada is at an economic crossroads.

    December 9, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Time For The Next-Gen Alberta Advantage

    Economic prosperity is a privilege, not a right.

    November 30, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Will Blue Hydrogen Come To Dominate Alberta’s Gas Strategy?

    The Kenney government deserves credit for developing a strategy in an attempt to boost markets for natural gas produced in Alberta. The gas industry has long been an important contributor to our economy, and as recently as fifteen years ago, prior to the U.S. Shale Gas Revolution, dominated provincial royalties from non-renewable resources.

    November 23, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Feds Must Invest Big In Alberta’s Clean Energy Future

    Only rarely do I read an article and think to myself, damn, I wish I wrote that. But, in late September, Eric Reguly, a business and economics columnist for The Globe and Mail, wrote an article entitled “Canada needs a new breed of corporate champion, and clean energy is the place to look,” which I wish I had written, and will borrow from here with appropriate attribution.

    October 26, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Another Oil Price Boom On The Horizon?

    The Daily Oil Bulletin published several articles about the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020, its latest long-term scenarios, when released on Oct. 13. And by simply glancing at their titles I knew which one of them would be the most read — IEA Warns That Ample Global Crude Supply ‘Should Not Be Taken For Granted’ — although I must admit to being surprised it only came in second place among all the articles published in DOB that day.

    October 15, 2020, 7:32 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Time For Alberta To Build A Cleaner Economy

    The halcyon days for Alberta oil and gas are over, the oilsands boom is dead, and it’s time for the provincial government to accept this new reality — rather than burying its head in the sand and/or fruitlessly fighting it — and adjust to make the best of an otherwise bad situation.

    September 29, 2020, 8:35 AM MDT

  • Energy-Ag Industry Summit Promotes Next-Gen Alberta Advantage

    There was buzz in the virtual air during the recent Growing Forward Together: Energy/Ag Industry Summit, as more than 125 participants launched an important new initiative: to reimagine and reinvigorate the Alberta Advantage.

    September 17, 2020, 12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Blue Hydrogen Better Bet For Alberta Than Petchems

    The Alberta government has had a long and generally dismal record of diversifying away from oil and gas since the oil price shocks of the 1970s made the industry the cornerstone of the provincial economy. One of the few successes has been petrochemicals, whereas the most costly failures include a cellphone company, hazardous waste treatment plant, a pulp mill and a magnesium smelter.

    September 10, 2020, 10:12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 4 — Impact On Canadian Oil And Gas

    Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee for the U.S. presidency, upped the ante for his Clean Energy Revolution yet again on August 11, by selecting California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Harris is a hardcore backer of the Green New Deal — and supporter of a fracking ban as well —  having sponsored a draft legislative proposal related to it with Democrat firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the first-term House Representative from New York State.

    August 26, 2020, 7:33 AM MDT

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