Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Lauerman: Higher Prices For Longer To Support Western Canadian Energy Transition

    Over the past year or so I’ve been arguing that western Canadian oil and gas producers, with support from the federal and provincial governments, need to take maximum advantage of what may be the last significant price boom to prepare for a net zero world.

    January 18, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Clean Hydrogen Civil War Series, Part 2 – Call To Action

    Part 1 of this two-part series showed how the recently launched Green Hydrogen Organization (GH2), as well as major environmental groups such as Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace, are attempting to thwart development of a global blue hydrogen industry.

    January 5, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Clean Hydrogen Civil War Series, Part 1 – The Evidence

    The battle for hearts and minds of the global clean hydrogen industry has already begun, with blue hydrogen the potential loser unless its proponents act quicker and smarter than our oilsands industry did in the past for a simple reason: the battle is coming from outside and within.

    December 8, 2021, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Time For Kenney To Play Climate Poker With The Feds

    The federal government has been upping the ante in the battle against greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past year, with potentially deleterious effect on Canada’s oil and gas industry if we play our cards poorly.

    November 22, 2021, 6:45 AM MST

  • Lauerman: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of Alberta’s Hydrogen Strategy

    The Alberta government has come a long ways on the clean hydrogen file over the past year or so.

    November 10, 2021, 7:40 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 4 – Canada

    Competition to be one of the last major oil producers standing in a net zero world is bound to be extremely intense. And based on economics alone, Canada doesn’t stand a chance. But economics has rarely been the sole driver for oil markets, with politics and political instability in and among major oil producers normally playing even a greater role in price formation, while helping to determine the winners and losers for market share.

    October 21, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 3 – Russia And The U.S.

    October 14, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 2 – Kuwait, Iran, Iraq And The UAE

    In the first part of this four-part series, the future competitive landscape was outlined for Canada’s oil producers, based on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario, our most likely competitors were identified, and the future competitive position of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia was explored.

    October 6, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 1 – Net Zero And Saudi Arabia

    Canada’s oilsands producers, with their long-life, low-decline mega-resource, hope to be some of the last oil producers standing in a net zero world. How plausible is that given oilsands’ relatively high cost of production and carbon intensity compared to output from other major oil producers around the globe?

    September 23, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Federal Election Meaningless For Canadian Energy Sector

    What a difference two years makes! During the 2019 federal election campaign the Canadian oilpatch still hung on the hope of a Conservative Party victory saving it from the Trudeau government’s climate change agenda.

    August 31, 2021, 8:56 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Helium Is A Nice Niche For Western Canada

    Helium may only be a niche commodity, and a rather opaque one at that, but the noble gas may be the perfect play to help diversify Western Canada’s economy.

    August 9, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Quebec’s Green Hydrogen Export Dreams

    In Could Canada Miss The Hydrogen Export Bus? I argued that Alberta and Quebec, the two provinces with the greatest clean hydrogen aspirations, needed to get moving now to secure a significant share of their most plausible export markets in the more distant future — California and the U.S. Northwest for Alberta and the U.S. Northeast for Quebec.

    July 26, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Kudos To Entrepreneurs Laying The Groundwork For Alberta’s Cleantech Sector

    Some of you readers may have noticed that I focus many of my articles towards Alberta. It’s not as if I have anything against the other major energy producing and exporting provinces in Canada — beautiful British Columbia and Quebec; and salt of the earth Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador. It’s simply a case of being a proud Albertan, concerned about the fate of our province.

    June 21, 2021, 12 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Alberta’s Future Series, Part 2 – Surviving The Worst-Case Scenario

    In Part 1 of this two-part series, I explored the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recently released Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, a worst-case scenario for Alberta.

    May 27, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Alberta’s Future Series, Part 1 – Worst-Case Scenario

    In the first decade of this century Alberta was fueled by incredible optimism. Peak oil — on the supply side —reigned supreme, oilsands projects were popping up like mushrooms, while natural gas prices were through the roof. The province was rolling in royalty revenue.

    May 26, 2021, 6:55 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Lessons From Saudi Arabia Series, Part 2 – Focus On Blue Hydrogen

    In Part 1 of this two-part series, I looked at Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) strategy to diversify the Saudi economy, his government’s evolving tactics to monetize its oil and gas resources, and identified both positive and negative lessons Alberta could learn from their efforts over the past five years.

    April 29, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Lessons From Saudi Arabia Series, Part 1 – The Great Transition

    Any longtime reader of my columns in the DOB should know I’m no fan of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, for his despotic ways.

    April 8, 2021, 9:53 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 102 – Bet On Hydrogen And Geothermal Instead!

    In Part One of this series, a case was made for the Alberta government adopting industrial policy to guide strategic investment decisions to successfully guide economic diversification in the province, after numerous failures under the laissez-faire approach.

    March 31, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Industrial Policy 101 — Anything But Nukes!

    Last autumn I wrote a number of articles for the DOB arguing that the Alberta government should adopt industrial policy-like long-term strategic planning to successfully guide economic diversification in the province as our debt mountain grows, the energy transition gains steam, and financial space for additional investment debacles narrows.

    March 22, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shell’s Scenarios Tell Alberta Oil And Gas A Story

    Royal Dutch Shell released its latest round of long-term global energy scenarios earlier this month, conveniently pushing the outlook period from 2070 to 2100, with the potential of cataclysmic climate change looming large over the remainder of this century.

    February 24, 2021, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Could Canada Miss The Hydrogen Export Bus?

    The Trudeau government has great expectations for the export of Canadian-produced clean hydrogen in the more distant future.

    February 10, 2021, 7:25 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Russia Is Gaining Control Over OPEC+

    In Putin’s Masterstroke, the fifth and final article in my Oil Price War 4.0 Series last April, I argued President Vladimir Putin agreeing to the massive output cuts at the historic OPEC+ meeting that month did not signify capitulation and the end of his price war to permanently maim the U.S. shale oil industry, but merely a tactical retreat.

    January 27, 2021, 7:31 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Moving On Quickly Could Cut Alberta’s Losses On Keystone XL Bet

    Joe Biden will be cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline expansion (KXL) as one of his first acts after being inaugurated president of the U.S., based on news reports over the weekend, costing Alberta taxpayers at least part of the UCP government’s $1.5-billion equity investment in the project, and possibly much more.

    January 19, 2021, 3:09 PM MST

  • Lauerman: Oilsands Producers Should Take Advantage Of Respite

    The hard hit western Canadian oilsands industry has seen some rays of sunshine in recent weeks, after suffering a downpour over much of the past six years. Unfortunately, this is no more than the calm before a far more powerful storm. As a result, oilsands producers should use this respite to better position themselves for long-term survival, not party like it’s New Year’s Eve 2013.

    December 22, 2020, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Canada’s Clean Energy Supercluster To The Rescue?

    Canada is at an economic crossroads.

    December 9, 2020, 12 AM MST

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