Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Oil And Gas Emissions Cap Series, Part 3 – Decarbonizing The Mid And Downstream

    As discussed in Part 1 of this three-part series, Canada’s downstream subsector presently is the closest to achieving the level of emission reductions proposed in the federal government’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) — 31 per cent below 2005 levels by end of decade/42 per cent below 2019 levels — whereas the midstream subsector has reduced emissions by a relatively modest amount to date (see Figure 1).

    November 30, 2023, 6 AM MST

  • Oil And Gas Emissions Cap Series, Part 2 – Decarbonizing The Upstream

    As discussed in Part 1 of this series, Canada’s conventional oil and gas subsector may be able to achieve the level of emission reductions proposed in the federal government’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan — 31 per cent below 2005 levels by end of decade/42 per cent below 2019 levels — but the oilsands subsector doesn’t have a chance due to massive production increases dwarfing improvements in emissions intensity (see Figure 1).

    November 21, 2023, 6 AM MST

  • Oil And Gas Emissions Cap Series, Part 1 – Is Mission 2030 Possible?

    The federal government’s oil and gas emissions cap is coming — much like winter in HBO’s blockbuster hit series Game of Thrones — with its draft legislation likely to be released by the end of the year.

    November 14, 2023, 12 AM MST

  • Net-Zero Power Grids By 2035 Series, Part 3 – Potential Pathways For Saskatchewan

    As discussed in Part 1 of this series, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and provincial Crown corporation SaskPower have stated in the most extreme terms that transitioning to a low-carbon power grid by 2035 — the goal of the federal government’s proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) — is not achievable as it “isn’t feasible technically, logistically, or financially."

    October 31, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • Net-Zero Power Grids By 2035 Series, Part 2 – Potential Pathways For Alberta

    As discussed in Part 1 of this series, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) projected the cost of achieving a net-zero grid in Alberta by 2035 to be substantially higher than under a more gradual decarbonization approach in its “Net-Zero Emissions Pathways Report” released in June 2022.

    October 25, 2023, 8 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 6 – B.C.’s Great Expectations

    The British Columbia government was the quickest Canadian province to release a clean hydrogen strategy in July 2021, and in many ways appears to have the most developed and systematic strategy for developing a hydrogen economy in their province.

    October 11, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • Net-Zero Power Grids By 2035 Series, Part 1 – The Western Firestorm

    The Canadian government released a draft version of its Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) in August, with the goal of achieving net-zero emission grids in all provinces and territories by 2035.

    October 3, 2023, 9 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 5 – Ontario’s Shotgun Approach

    Ontario appears to be taking more of a shotgun approach to its low-carbon hydrogen industry, in terms of sources of clean hydrogen and the markets it will serve in the province, than Alberta, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Quebec — the focus of earlier parts of this series — based on a strategy document released in April 2022.

    September 26, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • Simpatico Views About Net Zero On WPC Ministerial Roundtable

    Three high-ranking representatives from major oil and gas producing jurisdictions expressed similar views about matters related to net-zero emissions on a ministerial roundtable at the 2023 World Petroleum Congress in Calgary.

    September 21, 2023, 8:30 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 4 – Quebec’s Modest Expectations

    The Quebec government appears to have relatively low expectations for the province’s clean hydrogen industry compared to either Alberta or Atlantic Canada — the focus of Part 2 and Part 3 of this series, respectively — despite releasing a Green Hydrogen and Bioenergy Strategy in May 2022.

    September 11, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 3 – Atlantic Canada’s Export Drive

    Atlantic Canada is off to a fast start in the global clean hydrogen race, with a plethora of small and large-scale projects proposed for the region — especially wind-based export projects in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador (NL), with projects in Nova Scotia presently leading the pack.

    August 23, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 2 – The Alberta Advantage

    “We believe Alberta is on track to become a major producer and exporter of clean hydrogen and ammonia,” Alberta Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean tells the Bulletin.

    August 9, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Canada Clean Hydrogen Series, Part 1 – A Foundation For A Strong Hydrogen Economy?

    The federal and a number of provincial governments have released strategies in the past few years to help develop a strong clean hydrogen economy in Canada in the coming decades to stimulate economic growth and job creation and to slash the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

    July 24, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Direct Air Capture Series, Part 4 – Houston, We May Have A Problem

    In Part 1 of this series, I argued that the direct air capture (DAC) industry is at last achieving liftoff, largely due to government support, especially in the U.S.

    July 10, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Direct Air Capture Series, Part 3 – CarbonCapture’s Going Big By Going Small

    Los Angeles-based CarbonCapture Inc. is taking a very different approach to developing large-scale direct air capture (DAC) projects than Carbon Engineering, in terms of type of sorbent, its open architecture and modular design, and all-encompassing business model (see The Direct Air Capture Series, Part 2 – Carbon Engineering Is The Dominant Force).

    July 4, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Direct Air Capture Series, Part 2 – Carbon Engineering Is The Dominant Force

    Squamish, B.C.-based Carbon Engineering, in partnership with 1PointFive, an arm of U.S. mega-independent Occidental Petroleum, is the dominant force in the fledgling direct air capture plus storage (DAC+S) industry, with the potential to remain so far into the future.

    June 13, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Direct Air Capture Series, Part 1 – Houston, We Have Liftoff

    An inability to get global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under control since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997 has put the planet behind the proverbial eight-ball.

    June 8, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 6 – Salton Sea’s Geothermal Brine Has Huge Potential

    Lithium is found in geothermal brine in a number of countries and regions in the world, including Central Europe, China, New Zealand and Iceland, but the Salton Sea region in the southeastern corner of California is widely viewed as the most prospective and likely to achieve commercial-scale lithium production first.

    May 30, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 5 – Grounded Lithium Is Moving Fast

    Despite being a relatively new company, Calgary-based Grounded Lithium has quickly established itself as a major prospective lithium producer in Western Canada.

    May 16, 2023, 8:07 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 4 – E3 Lithium Has Great Expectations

    E3 Lithium, the pioneering lithium resource and technology company based in Calgary, expects Alberta to become one of the world’s largest lithium producers in coming decades, and the company to drive much of the province’s production growth by commercializing a direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology needed to exploit Alberta’s lithium-rich brine and by developing its own massive lithium resource.

    May 8, 2023, 8:30 AM MDT

  • The Feds Are All In On Critical Minerals

    Over the past several years the federal government has been investing to build businesses all along the critical minerals value chain in an attempt to seize what it views as a “generational opportunity” to create “significant wealth and sustainable jobs in every region of the country” to make “Canada a clean energy and technology supplier of choice in a net-zero world.”

    May 2, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 3 – Bright Future For Canadian Lithium Producers?

    The future appears bright for Canada’s lithium extraction industry, with the country’s critical minerals supply chain becoming increasingly prominent on the world stage.

    April 10, 2023, 12 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 2 – Competitive Landscape For Canadian Lithium Producers

    As discussed in Part 1 of this multi-part series, the never-ending bull market for lithium will provide huge opportunities for companies and countries that can bring new lithium supply online relatively quickly and efficiently, especially from higher quality resource, in the coming decades.

    April 4, 2023, 6 AM MDT

  • The Lithium Series, Part 1: The Never-Ending Lithium Boom

    The spot price of lithium shot to record highs late last year — almost triple the previous record set in 2018 — on the back of skyrocketing global consumption primarily due to booming electric vehicle (EV) sales, before declining somewhat the past few months.

    March 8, 2023, 12 AM MST

  • Greenfield Pivots Towards Fuels Of The Future, But Where To Invest?

    Greenfield Global, the largest ethanol producer in Canada, and one of the largest in North America, plans to make significant investments to support the global shift to low carbon fuels, including plans to pivot towards fuels of the future — whether by process or type — such as renewable natural gas (RNG), renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and green hydrogen and derivative e-fuels such as marine fuel methanol.

    February 23, 2023, 6 AM MST

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