Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 4 – Canada As Collateral Damage

    In the first two articles of this series I put forth the thesis that the current oil price war was instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the goal of causing substantial permanent damage to the U.S. shale industry, and the third article discussed three possible wildcards related to my thesis.

    March 30, 2020, 6:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 3 – Major Wildcards

    The first two articles in this series explained the rationale for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oil price war, the second article in more detail than the first. Before delving into three major wildcards that could impact Putin’s price war, both in a positive and negative manner, I have one matter I wish to discuss related to the central thesis, based on comments by a few friends and colleagues over the past week.

    March 27, 2020, 4:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 2 – Clash Of The Oil Titans

    In the first of the Oil Price War 4.0 series, it was argued in a general sort of way that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s price war would likely be longer and deeper than the three previously started by Saudi Arabia.

    March 23, 2020, 9:10 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 1 – Longer and Deeper?

    I have worked as a world oil analyst during all four crude oil price wars since the creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, having started my career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in the mid-‘80s. Based on what I’ve learned about oil price wars over this period, we should batten down the hatches, as this one could be the longest and deepest of them all.

    March 18, 2020, 1:33 PM MDT

  • Economic Reconciliation The Wrong Way

    Phil Fontaine, living legend and former three-term national chief of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), has said on numerous occasions that reconciliation is not possible without narrowing the economic gap between Indigenous peoples and the rest of Canadians.

    February 27, 2020, 9:54 AM MST

  • Danger Of An Anti-Fracking U.S. President

    Results from the Democratic Party’s presidential caucus in Iowa may be muddled, but it is crystal clear that two of the front runners for the nomination, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, will do all in their power to shut down the U.S. shale industry if they become president.

    February 10, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Is Libya Rope-A-Doping Global Oil Market?

    Market players have been extremely blasé about the large disruption to Libyan oil output since January 19, with the price of international marker Brent crude actually dropping more than two dollars a barrel.

    January 27, 2020, 9:39 AM MST

  • Soleimani’s Death Increases Probability Of Another Oil Shock

    The assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was a brilliant move by the Trump administration, if its goal is regime change.

    January 8, 2020, 10:40 AM MST

  • Environmentalist Groups Target Global Gas; What Should Natgas Industry Focus On?

    After choking the life out of Canada’s oilsands industry, the global environmental movement, led by the likes of teen activist Greta Thunberg, is now targeting the global LNG industry.

    December 23, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • A Crude Oil Price Surprise For 2020?

    Saudi Arabia rode to the rescue of crude oil prices yet again by pushing through 500,000-bbl-day of additional output cuts for the first quarter of next year. This was reportedly after putting the price war gun to the heads of fellow OPEC+ members, especially laggards to the previous production pact such as Iraq, Nigeria and Russia.

    December 16, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Sunshine For Newfoundland’s Offshore Oil Industry

    The recent dud of a licensing round appears to support the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ negative long-term outlook for Newfoundland’s offshore oil industry. But, in fact, the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) government has done much to revive the industry in recent years, and the province is more likely to see a substantial increase in oil production through the year 2035 than a substantial decline.

    November 26, 2019, 9:20 AM MST

  • Encana Domicile Move Wake-up Call For New Trudeau Government?

    The Canadian flag is flying at half-mast in Calgary with Encana Corporation’s Oct. 31 announcement that it is planning to domicile in the U.S. and change its name to Ovintiv Inc.

    November 11, 2019, 12 AM MST

  • Oil Industry Could Prosper Despite Trudeau Minority Government

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party may have won a strong minority mandate on Oct. 21, following four-years of majority rule, but this does not mean the sky will continue to fall for the western Canadian oil and gas industry. It partly depends on how Trudeau decides to secure majority votes in the House of Commons, and to a greater degree whether the massive Indigenous-led Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor project moves forward.

    October 23, 2019, 8:52 AM MDT

  • Invest In Mexican Oil Industry At Own Risk

    Since gaining power in December 2018, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — nicknamed AMLO — has made it clear through actions and rhetoric that he is no fan of his predecessor’s energy reform.

    October 16, 2019, 7:28 AM MDT

  • Drone Revolution Threatens Eastern Canadian Oil Imports

    The precedent set by the extremely successful drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and Khurais oilfield on Sept. 14 has tremendous implications for eastern Canadian oil security.

    September 30, 2019, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Norway Model Potential Winner For Scheer’s Conservatives

    Public opinion polls are looking bleak for the federal Conservative Party, and hence Western Canada’s oil industry, now that the writ has been dropped.

    September 17, 2019, 6 AM MDT

  • Confessions Of An Oil Price Forecaster

    All modesty aside, I’ve had a very good track record forecasting crude oil prices since returning to the industry in the late 1990s, and have been particularly adept at anticipating major market turning points. But, holy cow, I’ve been far too bullish since late last year.

    September 4, 2019, 7:53 AM MDT

  • Canada Could Still Become Energy Superpower

    Canada has gone from potential energy superpower to global laughingstock over the past several years.

    August 26, 2019, 7:15 AM MDT

  • Radical Route Needed To Boost Alberta Gas Industry

    The Alberta natural gas industry is in dire straits. In an open letter to Premier Jason Kenney, nine CEOs of primarily gas-producing companies recently begged the Alberta government to consider some sort of royalty tax credit scheme to support a voluntary curtailment plan in an attempt to stabilize gas prices at higher levels.

    July 31, 2019, 6 AM MDT

  • Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor Could Kill Four Birds With One Stone

    It’s hard not to respect people who look adversity in the face and appear to laugh at it.

    July 15, 2019, 7:24 AM MDT

  • Canada Should Follow In Norway’s Energy Footsteps

    Isn’t it ironic? Norway is viewed as a paragon of environmental virtue and Canada an energy pariah, despite both being major producers and exporters of oil and gas.

    July 8, 2019, 9:04 AM MDT

  • Alberta’s Crude Curtailment Program Could Be Prolonged Affair

    The Notley government’s crude oil curtailment program, backed by the opposition United Conservative Party, to reduce a glut of oil in storage in Western Canada and bolster catastrophic regional prices, was to run from January to December of this year. The program’s sunset clause was predicated on Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 Replacement project coming online in late 2019, adding 370,000 bbls/d of incremental pipeline capacity out of the region.

    June 20, 2019, 10:01 AM MDT

  • Crude Oil Bears Full Of Bull

    “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” the crude oil price bears are yelling from the woods.

    June 6, 2019, 10:59 AM MDT

  • Trudeau Minority Government Next?

    The Liberal Party is trailing in the polls, and based on history our natural ruling party will do whatever it takes to shore up support prior to the federal election on or before October 21, including throwing Western Canada’s oil industry under the bus yet again.

    May 21, 2019, 7:43 AM MDT

  • Should Kenney Reconsider Trashing Notley’s Rail Plan?

    To cancel the recently signed contracts with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) or not, that’s the question newly-installed Premier Jason Kenney must now answer.

    May 1, 2019, 6:54 AM MDT