Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Soleimani’s Death Increases Probability Of Another Oil Shock

    The assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was a brilliant move by the Trump administration, if its goal is regime change.

    January 8, 2020, 10:40 AM MST

  • Environmentalist Groups Target Global Gas; What Should Natgas Industry Focus On?

    After choking the life out of Canada’s oilsands industry, the global environmental movement, led by the likes of teen activist Greta Thunberg, is now targeting the global LNG industry.

    December 23, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • A Crude Oil Price Surprise For 2020?

    Saudi Arabia rode to the rescue of crude oil prices yet again by pushing through 500,000-bbl-day of additional output cuts for the first quarter of next year. This was reportedly after putting the price war gun to the heads of fellow OPEC+ members, especially laggards to the previous production pact such as Iraq, Nigeria and Russia.

    December 16, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Sunshine For Newfoundland’s Offshore Oil Industry

    The recent dud of a licensing round appears to support the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ negative long-term outlook for Newfoundland’s offshore oil industry. But, in fact, the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) government has done much to revive the industry in recent years, and the province is more likely to see a substantial increase in oil production through the year 2035 than a substantial decline.

    November 26, 2019, 9:20 AM MST

  • Encana Domicile Move Wake-up Call For New Trudeau Government?

    The Canadian flag is flying at half-mast in Calgary with Encana Corporation’s Oct. 31 announcement that it is planning to domicile in the U.S. and change its name to Ovintiv Inc.

    November 11, 2019, 12 AM MST

  • Oil Industry Could Prosper Despite Trudeau Minority Government

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party may have won a strong minority mandate on Oct. 21, following four-years of majority rule, but this does not mean the sky will continue to fall for the western Canadian oil and gas industry. It partly depends on how Trudeau decides to secure majority votes in the House of Commons, and to a greater degree whether the massive Indigenous-led Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor project moves forward.

    October 23, 2019, 8:52 AM MDT

  • Invest In Mexican Oil Industry At Own Risk

    Since gaining power in December 2018, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — nicknamed AMLO — has made it clear through actions and rhetoric that he is no fan of his predecessor’s energy reform.

    October 16, 2019, 7:28 AM MDT

  • Drone Revolution Threatens Eastern Canadian Oil Imports

    The precedent set by the extremely successful drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and Khurais oilfield on Sept. 14 has tremendous implications for eastern Canadian oil security.

    September 30, 2019, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Norway Model Potential Winner For Scheer’s Conservatives

    Public opinion polls are looking bleak for the federal Conservative Party, and hence Western Canada’s oil industry, now that the writ has been dropped.

    September 17, 2019, 6 AM MDT

  • Confessions Of An Oil Price Forecaster

    All modesty aside, I’ve had a very good track record forecasting crude oil prices since returning to the industry in the late 1990s, and have been particularly adept at anticipating major market turning points. But, holy cow, I’ve been far too bullish since late last year.

    September 4, 2019, 7:53 AM MDT

  • Canada Could Still Become Energy Superpower

    Canada has gone from potential energy superpower to global laughingstock over the past several years.

    August 26, 2019, 7:15 AM MDT

  • Radical Route Needed To Boost Alberta Gas Industry

    The Alberta natural gas industry is in dire straits. In an open letter to Premier Jason Kenney, nine CEOs of primarily gas-producing companies recently begged the Alberta government to consider some sort of royalty tax credit scheme to support a voluntary curtailment plan in an attempt to stabilize gas prices at higher levels.

    July 31, 2019, 6 AM MDT

  • Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor Could Kill Four Birds With One Stone

    It’s hard not to respect people who look adversity in the face and appear to laugh at it.

    July 15, 2019, 7:24 AM MDT

  • Canada Should Follow In Norway’s Energy Footsteps

    Isn’t it ironic? Norway is viewed as a paragon of environmental virtue and Canada an energy pariah, despite both being major producers and exporters of oil and gas.

    July 8, 2019, 9:04 AM MDT

  • Alberta’s Crude Curtailment Program Could Be Prolonged Affair

    The Notley government’s crude oil curtailment program, backed by the opposition United Conservative Party, to reduce a glut of oil in storage in Western Canada and bolster catastrophic regional prices, was to run from January to December of this year. The program’s sunset clause was predicated on Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 Replacement project coming online in late 2019, adding 370,000 bbls/d of incremental pipeline capacity out of the region.

    June 20, 2019, 10:01 AM MDT

  • Crude Oil Bears Full Of Bull

    “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” the crude oil price bears are yelling from the woods.

    June 6, 2019, 10:59 AM MDT

  • Trudeau Minority Government Next?

    The Liberal Party is trailing in the polls, and based on history our natural ruling party will do whatever it takes to shore up support prior to the federal election on or before October 21, including throwing Western Canada’s oil industry under the bus yet again.

    May 21, 2019, 7:43 AM MDT

  • Should Kenney Reconsider Trashing Notley’s Rail Plan?

    To cancel the recently signed contracts with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) or not, that’s the question newly-installed Premier Jason Kenney must now answer.

    May 1, 2019, 6:54 AM MDT

  • Kenney’s Natural Gas Strategy Leaves Room For Improvement

    I’m thrilled Alberta will again have a pro-business government in power as of April 30. But Premier-designate Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party (UCP) will have their work cut out for them, especially to fulfil their campaign promise of getting a “fair price” for Alberta’s natural gas.

    April 25, 2019, 7:23 AM MDT

  • 2019 Oil & Gas Survey Outlook Report: Capital Spending Declining, Cost Controls Tightening

    Part four of the 2019 Oil & Gas Survey Outlook Report looks at capital spending plans, where the industry plans on spending money, and how it plans to manage costs in 2019.

    April 22, 2019, 7:27 AM MDT

  • 2019 Oil & Gas Survey Outlook Report: Grading Government Performance

    April 18, 2019, 9:35 AM MDT

  • New UCP Government Could Bolster Alberta Separatism

    The NDP has been bounced from power in Alberta. Now the hard part. To get new crude pipeline capacity constructed to tidewater.

    April 17, 2019, 7:19 AM MDT

  • 2019 Oil & Gas Survey Outlook Report: Survey Respondents See An Industry In Decline

    sectors to understand the key issues facing the industry in 2019. In this four-part series, Vince Lauerman sifts through the results of the 3rd annual Industry Outlook Survey to identify the challenges faced by the industry in 2018, and where it is headed in 2019.

    April 17, 2019, 9:48 AM MDT

  • A Small Step On The Long Road To Reconciliation

    I’m thrilled to see the federal and Alberta governments talking about a possible large Aboriginal stake in the Trans Mountain crude pipeline, assuming completion of the expansion project.

    April 3, 2019, 9:17 AM MDT

  • 2019 Service & Supply Outlook Survey Results: Technological Disruption Driving Service Industry Change, But Financial Issues Slowing Advances

    Today’s installment of the 2019 Service & Supply Outlook Survey looks at how oilfield service companies view the challenges of implementing technology in their operations.

    April 1, 2019, 7:04 AM MDT