Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 2 – Policies For U.S. Oil And Gas Industry

    Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the U.S. presidency, upped the ante for his Clean Energy Revolution on July 14, the day after part one of this four-part series was published.

    July 27, 2020, 7:19 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Biden Presidency Series Part 1 – Clean Energy Revolution

    Joe Biden has made it crystal clear that the U.S. will once again lead the battle against climate change if he is elected president in November. He has been less forthright about his plans for the U.S. oil and gas industry, by all appearances to avoid alienating the Progressive wing within his own Democratic Party.

    July 13, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: King Salman Has Painted Saudi Arabia Into A Corner — Part 2

    Mohammad bin Salman’s (MBS) primary method of stoking the embers of secular Saudi nationalism has been his regional Cold War with Iran, as he has long cast the Islamic Republic as the root of all problems in the Middle East, arguing political — the battle for regional hegemonyand theological — with the Saudis primarily Sunni Muslims and Iranians despised Shiite ones — differences make negotiations between them impossible. MBS has compared Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to Adolph Hitler and threatened to instigate violence within Iran’s borders.

    June 24, 2020, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: King Salman Has Painted Saudi Arabia Into A Corner— Part 1

    King Salman has painted his kingdom into a corner by concentrating power in his matrilineal line of the royal family, and his young and inexperienced son Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) in particular, since ascending the throne in January 2015. By making MBS crown prince in June 2017, after pushing aside two previous princes from other lines of the family, and making his son de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, the king has inadvertently made the House of Saud brittle.

    June 23, 2020, 7:32 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Premier Kenney’s Risky Gamble On Keystone XL

    Premier Jason Kenney backstopped TC Energy’s Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline with $7.5 billion of Alberta’s money at the end of March to ensure a positive final investment decision (FID) and construction on the project to start in April.

    May 28, 2020, 5:49 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Shrewd Move By Irving Oil An Indictment On The Feds

    Irving Oil Limited’s recent move to source western Canadian crude oil for its 320,000 bbl/d Saint John refinery, the largest in the country, using foreign tanker ships rather than rail or non-existent pipeline is nothing short of genius and an indictment on Canadian energy policy (see Irving Oil Applies To CTA For Tankers To Ship Canadian Crude To Its Saint John Refinery).

    May 13, 2020, 6:23 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 5 – Putin’s Masterstroke

    Despite misplaying his hand horribly, and rather remarkably being outsmarted by both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin made virtue of adversity by agreeing to the historic OPEC+ deal finalized on April 12. This has allowed him to relay the groundwork for his strategy to win the price war against the U.S. shale industry.

    April 14, 2020, 7:59 AM MDT

  • GLJ’s Medium-Term Outlook For Oil And Natural Gas Prices

    Times are presently extremely tough for the global, North American and Canadian oil and gas industries, with the double whammy of COVID-19 demand destruction and oil price war hammering prices lower. But there are reasons for optimism according to Justin Mogck, director of commodities research at Calgary-based GLJ Petroleum Consultants, as of mid-year and through 2025.

    April 13, 2020, 9:53 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 4 – Canada As Collateral Damage

    In the first two articles of this series I put forth the thesis that the current oil price war was instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the goal of causing substantial permanent damage to the U.S. shale industry, and the third article discussed three possible wildcards related to my thesis.

    March 30, 2020, 6:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 3 – Major Wildcards

    The first two articles in this series explained the rationale for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s oil price war, the second article in more detail than the first. Before delving into three major wildcards that could impact Putin’s price war, both in a positive and negative manner, I have one matter I wish to discuss related to the central thesis, based on comments by a few friends and colleagues over the past week.

    March 27, 2020, 4:52 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 2 – Clash Of The Oil Titans

    In the first of the Oil Price War 4.0 series, it was argued in a general sort of way that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s price war would likely be longer and deeper than the three previously started by Saudi Arabia.

    March 23, 2020, 9:10 AM MDT

  • Oil Price War 4.0 Series Part 1 – Longer and Deeper?

    I have worked as a world oil analyst during all four crude oil price wars since the creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, having started my career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in the mid-‘80s. Based on what I’ve learned about oil price wars over this period, we should batten down the hatches, as this one could be the longest and deepest of them all.

    March 18, 2020, 1:33 PM MDT

  • Economic Reconciliation The Wrong Way

    Phil Fontaine, living legend and former three-term national chief of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), has said on numerous occasions that reconciliation is not possible without narrowing the economic gap between Indigenous peoples and the rest of Canadians.

    February 27, 2020, 9:54 AM MST

  • Danger Of An Anti-Fracking U.S. President

    Results from the Democratic Party’s presidential caucus in Iowa may be muddled, but it is crystal clear that two of the front runners for the nomination, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, will do all in their power to shut down the U.S. shale industry if they become president.

    February 10, 2020, 12 AM MST

  • Is Libya Rope-A-Doping Global Oil Market?

    Market players have been extremely blasé about the large disruption to Libyan oil output since January 19, with the price of international marker Brent crude actually dropping more than two dollars a barrel.

    January 27, 2020, 9:39 AM MST

  • Soleimani’s Death Increases Probability Of Another Oil Shock

    The assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was a brilliant move by the Trump administration, if its goal is regime change.

    January 8, 2020, 10:40 AM MST

  • Environmentalist Groups Target Global Gas; What Should Natgas Industry Focus On?

    After choking the life out of Canada’s oilsands industry, the global environmental movement, led by the likes of teen activist Greta Thunberg, is now targeting the global LNG industry.

    December 23, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • A Crude Oil Price Surprise For 2020?

    Saudi Arabia rode to the rescue of crude oil prices yet again by pushing through 500,000-bbl-day of additional output cuts for the first quarter of next year. This was reportedly after putting the price war gun to the heads of fellow OPEC+ members, especially laggards to the previous production pact such as Iraq, Nigeria and Russia.

    December 16, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Sunshine For Newfoundland’s Offshore Oil Industry

    The recent dud of a licensing round appears to support the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ negative long-term outlook for Newfoundland’s offshore oil industry. But, in fact, the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) government has done much to revive the industry in recent years, and the province is more likely to see a substantial increase in oil production through the year 2035 than a substantial decline.

    November 26, 2019, 9:20 AM MST

  • Encana Domicile Move Wake-up Call For New Trudeau Government?

    The Canadian flag is flying at half-mast in Calgary with Encana Corporation’s Oct. 31 announcement that it is planning to domicile in the U.S. and change its name to Ovintiv Inc.

    November 11, 2019, 12 AM MST

  • Oil Industry Could Prosper Despite Trudeau Minority Government

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party may have won a strong minority mandate on Oct. 21, following four-years of majority rule, but this does not mean the sky will continue to fall for the western Canadian oil and gas industry. It partly depends on how Trudeau decides to secure majority votes in the House of Commons, and to a greater degree whether the massive Indigenous-led Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor project moves forward.

    October 23, 2019, 8:52 AM MDT

  • Invest In Mexican Oil Industry At Own Risk

    Since gaining power in December 2018, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — nicknamed AMLO — has made it clear through actions and rhetoric that he is no fan of his predecessor’s energy reform.

    October 16, 2019, 7:28 AM MDT

  • Drone Revolution Threatens Eastern Canadian Oil Imports

    The precedent set by the extremely successful drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and Khurais oilfield on Sept. 14 has tremendous implications for eastern Canadian oil security.

    September 30, 2019, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Norway Model Potential Winner For Scheer’s Conservatives

    Public opinion polls are looking bleak for the federal Conservative Party, and hence Western Canada’s oil industry, now that the writ has been dropped.

    September 17, 2019, 6 AM MDT

  • Confessions Of An Oil Price Forecaster

    All modesty aside, I’ve had a very good track record forecasting crude oil prices since returning to the industry in the late 1990s, and have been particularly adept at anticipating major market turning points. But, holy cow, I’ve been far too bullish since late last year.

    September 4, 2019, 7:53 AM MDT