Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • Lauerman: Energy Prices Up Or Down, Part 2 – Natural Gas

    Natural gas is the hottest commodity in the world right now. The global LNG market was beginning to tighten in the second half of last year with the post-COVID economic rebound in gas consumption and a lack of investment in LNG-related infrastructure over the past several years.

    August 10, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Energy Prices Up Or Down, Part 1 – Crude Oil

    The February invasion of Ukraine by Russia, at the time the world’s largest oil and natural gas exporter, has caused an unprecedented global energy crisis, with the potential of getting even worse according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    August 3, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Potential Impact Of Feds’ RERTs On Low-Carbon Industry Development

    Canada has long been an innovation laggard, and as a result, an economic laggard among the Group of 7 (G7) advanced industrial economies. This is despite the federal government adopting numerous policies and programs over the decades to put our country onto a more positive path.

    July 5, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: A Pragmatic Solution For The Feds’ Climate Versus Energy Security Dilemma

    I guess walking and chewing gum at the same time is much tougher than Jonathan Wilkinson, federal minister of natural resources, would have us believe.

    June 27, 2022, 6:54 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Federal Carbon Price Contracts A True Guarantee?

    Back in late March, when the Trudeau government tabled its long awaited 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault indicated that the feds were looking to “future proof” its carbon pricing regime, as it’s the “cornerstone” of Canada’s climate action plan and needed to propel decarbonization investments by large industrial emitters forward.

    June 2, 2022, 8:27 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Canada’s Golden Energy Opportunity, Part 2 – Feds To The Rescue?

    In Part 1 of this two-part series, I provided a thumbnail sketch of the possible composition of trading blocs under the New World Economic Disorder, as implied by U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen in a speech to the Atlantic Council in mid-April. I also discussed the economic impacts of global economic de-integration, including how it will lead to a less vibrant technological future.

    May 18, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Canada’s Golden Energy Opportunity, Part 1 – The New World Economic Disorder

    It may have been simply a matter of time before the Age of Economic Globalization came to an end, with the emergence of an increasingly assertive authoritarian bloc led by China and Russia, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have ended it with a thud.

    May 9, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: The Future Of Clean Hydrogen Consumption, Part 3 – The Pragmatic Case

    In Part 1 of this three-part series I presented the Hydrogen Council’s bullish case for global hydrogen consumption in a net zero by 2050 world, and in Part 2 the rationale for a bearish case based on new energy guru Michael Liebreich’s clean hydrogen ladder. Here, in Part 3, I will quantify a Liebreich-like bearish case in relation to the council’s bullish case, and provide what I believe to be a more pragmatic case for global hydrogen demand in 2050.

    April 11, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: The Future Of Clean Hydrogen Consumption, Part 2 – The Bearish Case

    In Part 1 of this three-part series I presented the Hydrogen Council’s bullish case for global hydrogen consumption under a net-zero by 2050 scenario, including projected clean hydrogen demand by major sector and a few key industries.

    March 29, 2022, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: President Putin’s Massive Ukrainian Blunder, Part 3

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, and by all appearances it’s closer to a Zelensky stalemate than a quick Putin checkmate for reasons discussed in the first part of this series.

    March 10, 2022, 7:41 AM MST

  • Lauerman: President Putin’s Massive Ukrainian Blunder, Part 2

    "Russia should be thrown back into the Stone Age to make sure that the oil and gas industry and any other sensitive industries that are vital for survival of the regime cannot function …”, said Garry Kasparov, Russian human rights activist and former world chess champion, in an interview with Reuters on March 3.

    March 7, 2022, 7:54 AM MST

  • Lauerman: President Putin’s Massive Ukrainian Blunder

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is widely viewed as a geopolitical grandmaster. As my son often says, it’s like Putin is playing three-dimensional chess and everyone else is playing checkers.

    February 28, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: The Future Of Clean Hydrogen Consumption, Part 1 – The Bullish Case

    The concept of a global “hydrogen economy” has been floating around for decades.

    February 23, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Geopolitics Again Driving Crude Oil Prices

    Geopolitics has tended to play a relatively minor role in crude oil price formation since the 2014-16 oil price war, with one significant exception: the highly successful drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and Khurais oilfield in September 2019 (see Drone Revolution Threatens Eastern Canadian Oil Imports).

    January 31, 2022, 6:01 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Higher Prices For Longer To Support Western Canadian Energy Transition

    Over the past year or so I’ve been arguing that western Canadian oil and gas producers, with support from the federal and provincial governments, need to take maximum advantage of what may be the last significant price boom to prepare for a net zero world.

    January 18, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Clean Hydrogen Civil War Series, Part 2 – Call To Action

    Part 1 of this two-part series showed how the recently launched Green Hydrogen Organization (GH2), as well as major environmental groups such as Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace, are attempting to thwart development of a global blue hydrogen industry.

    January 5, 2022, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Clean Hydrogen Civil War Series, Part 1 – The Evidence

    The battle for hearts and minds of the global clean hydrogen industry has already begun, with blue hydrogen the potential loser unless its proponents act quicker and smarter than our oilsands industry did in the past for a simple reason: the battle is coming from outside and within.

    December 8, 2021, 6 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Time For Kenney To Play Climate Poker With The Feds

    The federal government has been upping the ante in the battle against greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past year, with potentially deleterious effect on Canada’s oil and gas industry if we play our cards poorly.

    November 22, 2021, 6:45 AM MST

  • Lauerman: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of Alberta’s Hydrogen Strategy

    The Alberta government has come a long ways on the clean hydrogen file over the past year or so.

    November 10, 2021, 7:40 AM MST

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 4 – Canada

    Competition to be one of the last major oil producers standing in a net zero world is bound to be extremely intense. And based on economics alone, Canada doesn’t stand a chance. But economics has rarely been the sole driver for oil markets, with politics and political instability in and among major oil producers normally playing even a greater role in price formation, while helping to determine the winners and losers for market share.

    October 21, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 3 – Russia And The U.S.

    October 14, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 2 – Kuwait, Iran, Iraq And The UAE

    In the first part of this four-part series, the future competitive landscape was outlined for Canada’s oil producers, based on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario, our most likely competitors were identified, and the future competitive position of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia was explored.

    October 6, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Last Oil Producers Standing Series, Part 1 – Net Zero And Saudi Arabia

    Canada’s oilsands producers, with their long-life, low-decline mega-resource, hope to be some of the last oil producers standing in a net zero world. How plausible is that given oilsands’ relatively high cost of production and carbon intensity compared to output from other major oil producers around the globe?

    September 23, 2021, 6 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Federal Election Meaningless For Canadian Energy Sector

    What a difference two years makes! During the 2019 federal election campaign the Canadian oilpatch still hung on the hope of a Conservative Party victory saving it from the Trudeau government’s climate change agenda.

    August 31, 2021, 8:56 AM MDT

  • Lauerman: Helium Is A Nice Niche For Western Canada

    Helium may only be a niche commodity, and a rather opaque one at that, but the noble gas may be the perfect play to help diversify Western Canada’s economy.

    August 9, 2021, 6 AM MDT

Dear user, please be aware that we use cookies to help users navigate our website content and to help us understand how we can improve the user experience. If you have ideas for how we can improve our services, we’d love to hear from you. Click here to email us. By continuing to browse you agree to our use of cookies. Please see our Privacy & Cookie Usage Policy to learn more.