Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst, specializing on oil markets. He has also worked as a manager of energy economists, policy analysts and reporters, and as a private macro-speculator. He began his career with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in the mid-1980s, having graduated with a masters degree in economics from the University of Alberta, and has worked in Calgary, New York and Tokyo.

  • IEA Too Bullish On Global Oil Consumption

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest medium-term outlook for the world oil market on March 11, and it’s no more likely to be prescient than those in the past for a simple reason: the IEA is a political organization.

    March 25, 2019, 7:25 AM MDT

  • 2019 Service & Supply Outlook Survey Results: Decline In Revenues Predicted By Over One-Third Of Survey Respondents

    After a turnaround in 2017, many survey respondents reported downturns in revenues in 2018. A significant minority of respondents expects this trend to continue in in 2019. Access to capital is expected to remain tight, with most operators relying on cash flow to fund operations.

    March 25, 2019, 8:50 AM MDT

  • Don’t Bet Farm On Alberta Rail Plan Making Money

    Call me skeptical.

    February 27, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Imperial Overstates Case Against Crude Curtailment

    Imperial Oil has every reason to complain about the Alberta government curtailing crude oil production in the province, as do Suncor and Husky. Due to substantial investment in their integrated models over the decades, including crude-by-rail facilities in the case of Imperial, these companies were making a lot of money from the implosion of western Canadian crude prices in the fourth quarter of 2018.

    February 21, 2019, 6 AM MST

  • Venezuela On Brink Of Civil War?

    In the summer of 2017 I wrote the Venezuela crisis was nearing its endgame (see Impact Of New U.S. Economic Sanctions On Venezuela). It has been a long time coming, but based on recent events it appears the endgame is finally here for real, and it likely won’t be pretty.

    January 28, 2019, 7:29 AM MST

  • Two Paths For Alberta Separation

    Alberta Separation Could Be Real Threat  made the case, assuming the federal government continues its anti-natural resource development agenda.

    January 21, 2019, 8:13 AM MST

  • Alberta Separatism Could Be Real Threat

    There’s a great deal of skepticism about the potential of Alberta separatism, especially among Central Canada’s elite.

    January 7, 2019, 8:02 AM MST

  • Premier Notley’s Annus Horribilis

    Call me “The Grinch.”

    December 17, 2018, 9:11 AM MST

  • Qatar Exit A Harbinger For OPEC And OPEC+?

    What a difference one OPEC+ meeting makes.

    December 10, 2018, 8:36 AM MST

  • Argentina’s Cautionary Tale For Canadian Economy

    Canadians shouldn’t take our economic prosperity for granted. Argentines did early last century, and they’ve been paying the price ever since. Misguided government policies caused Argentina’s fall from economic grace, and misguided government policies could cause our economic downfall.

    November 28, 2018, 8:11 AM MST

  • The Sole Silver Bullet For Western Canada’s Crude Crisis

    The politicians are pondering how to quickly counter catastrophic prices for Western Canadian crude oil.

    November 23, 2018, 10:16 AM MST

  • Neither Stratosphere Nor Depths For Global Crude Prices

    A correction in international benchmark crude prices turned to an historic rout with the market caught flatfooted early this month by the Trump administration’s announcement of waivers on reintroduced U.S. economic sanctions for eight significant purchasers of Iranian oil.

    November 19, 2018, 7:35 AM MST

  • Civil War In The Oilpatch And A Lougheed Solution

    There would be no civil war in Western Canada’s oilpatch now, if the Alberta government and the province’s oil industry had followed the advice of former Premier Peter Lougheed last decade.

    November 5, 2018, 11:18 AM MST

  • Premier Notley Asleep At Locomotive’s Throttle?

    On Monday afternoon Premier Rachel Notley announced the province of Alberta will be presenting a business plan to the federal government by early next week outlining several strategies — including getting the feds to invest in locomotives and tanker cars — to support the rapid ramp up of crude-by-rail shipments as a short- to medium-term method to quell massive discounts for western Canadian oil.

    October 24, 2018, 7:07 AM MDT

  • Saudi Farce Epitomizes Canada’s Need For Energy Security

    In response to the Saudi government’s diplomatic spat with Canada in early August over some mild criticism about the country’s horrific human rights record under de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), I argued the federal government should maintain the moral high ground and continue to import crude from the kingdom (see Canadian Pawn Takes King In Saudi Game Of Thrones). The Khashoggi affair has caused me to reassess this position and I now believe Canada should stop importing Saudi oil.

    October 22, 2018, 8:15 AM MDT

  • Bravo LNG Canada, Encore, Encore

    Hallelujah! British Columbia finally caught itself an LNG export project. The first in a new global wave, and a nice big one at that.

    October 10, 2018, 6 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Bill C-69 — An Economy And Energy Security Killer

    The Trudeau government’s Bill C-69, currently undergoing second reading by the Senate, is one bad piece of regulatory legislation.

    September 24, 2018, 7:23 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Trump Has Canada Over The NAFTA Barrel, Maybe

    The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) sits on a razor’s edge — at least as we’ve known it as a trilateral trade agreement.

    September 7, 2018, 8:34 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time For Feds To Go Back To Pipeline Drawing Board

    Blame me, kinda.

    August 31, 2018, 6:01 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Time To Secure Canada’s Oil Security

    The prominent Calgary-based energy analyst Peter Tertzakian was correct to raise Canadian oil security as a serious issue and recommend construction of a west-east pipeline to alleviate this threat in recent interviews.

    August 27, 2018, 7:51 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Canadian Pawn Takes King In Saudi Game of Thrones

    Kudos to the Trudeau government for standing up to Saudi Arabian blackmail. Thousands upon thousands of Canadians paid the ultimate price during the two world wars to protect democracy and human rights, and the least our generation can do is suffer minor economic inconvenience to stand up to the repressive Saudi regime.

    August 9, 2018, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Three Scenarios For A Strait Of Hormuz Closure

    The rhetoric has been flying this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Trump as much as threatened nuclear annihilation on the Islamic Republic in a caps filled Tweet in response to Rouhani telling a gathering of diplomats in Tehran that war with Iran would be “the mother of all wars.” The U.S. president chose to ignore the second part of the Iranian president’s sentence in which he added “… and peace with Iran is the mother of all peace.”

    July 26, 2018, 7:44 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Misguided Output Forecasts Harm Canadian Oilpatch

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) released the 2018 edition of its Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation report last month. It is a very useful report in some ways, but unfortunately the crude forecasts in these reports have long suffered from myopia.

    July 16, 2018, 7:58 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Crude Oil Prices To The Stratosphere?

    There is a damned good reason international benchmark crude prices have been rocketing higher since so-called OPEC+ —  the 14 OPEC members and 10 non-OPEC countries restricting crude production since the beginning of 2017 —  agreed to raise output on June 22: a potential supply crunch late this year or early next year due to yet another misguided policy by U.S. President Donald Trump.

    July 3, 2018, 9:04 AM MDT

  • Analysis: Throw Mexico, Not Oil Industry, Under Trump Trade Bus

    There may be more prominent targets in U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, such as China and the European Union, but Canada and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have recently been the primary recipients of Trump administration vitriol.  

    June 25, 2018, 7 AM MDT