Integrated Sustainability: Water Availability Forecast – Spring 2023

Intro

Dr. Jon Fennell, Ph.D., P.Geol., M.Sc., Principal Hydrogeologist & Geochemist at Integrated Sustainability, provides his assessment of Western Canada’s water availability outlook for 2023. Pioneering water resources best practices across North America, Integrated Sustainability provide full advise, design, build, operate, & finance services for energy development projects. Download the full water bulletin.

Water Bulletin: Spring 2023

Winter conditions in Western Canada are now receding and spring has started to make its appearance once again. The question is: “What can we expect in 2023 regarding water supply for water-dependent industries?” Equally important, will there be a risk of flood or drought as we move through this water-year?

Below Normal Trajectory

No doubt, the winter of 2023 was a bit whacky with cold snaps shifting to mild conditions, sometimes abruptly. Snow accumulation was quite varied across the western provinces, with some areas documenting normal conditions and others struggling with low percent of normal values. The snowpack along the Rocky Mountains has been notably variable, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.  Percent of normal snowpack conditions up to February 2023 (Source: British Columbia Government, Alberta Government).

Most striking is the lower amounts of snow accumulation in the mountain areas, which are responsible for much of the runoff that sustains the waters we rely on. At this point, roughly 70% of the annual snowpack has now accumulated. Depending on the trajectory of the remaining snow months (April and May) before the onset of the spring melt, the current “below normal” conditions in the mountains present a risk of water stress or water scarcity for the coming year.

Increased Risk of Water Shortage

The lower-than-normal snowpack, combined with the current drought conditions in western Canada (Figure 2), increases the risk of experiencing a water-short year. Therefore, the type, magnitude, and duration of early spring to summer rainfall events will be crucial. Equally important will be a slow and sustained melt of that stored water in the higher elevations.   

Figure 2.  Drought conditions in Western Canada as of February 28, 2023 (Source: Canadian Drought Monitor).

ENSO Conditions

The current ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions are starting to indicate a transition from a La Niña phase, that has persisted since the summer of 2020, to more neutral conditions. Projections indicate about a 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions forming in Western Canada by early summer (Figure 3). The El Niño phase tends to bring warmer and drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest which could lead to lower amounts of precipitation this year. 

Figure 3.  ENSO projections for the various seasons throughout 2023 (Source: Climate Prediction Centre).

Rainfall Projections

Projections by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) indicate a better than 50% chance that precipitation will be below normal during the March to May period, particularly in the southern portion of Alberta. For the rest of western Canada, this probability decreases to between 20% to 40% depending on location. 

Figure 4.  Forecast probability of precipitation for the period of March-April-May of 2023 (Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada).

Figure 4 shows the distribution of probabilities for the three western provinces, with the interior of British Columbia showing the lowest probability of below normal rainfall. Depending on where you live or operate, this could lead to a lower runoff season. When lower runoff is combined with the current drought conditions across the area, this could lead to an extended period of low-flow in rivers through the summer and fall months. Time will tell what happens this year, but preparing for water supply challenges would be prudent. This is not a prediction…just some advice.

Summary and Key Takeaway

Certainty of water supplies is never a given. Being prepared for water-short conditions will ensure against costly disruptions to your water-dependent activities. Knowing and understanding the developing climate conditions can make the difference between running a smooth operation or having to react to quickly changing conditions.

Integrated Sustainability’s water specialists understand this challenge and can help ensure you have a suitable water strategy in place to avoid water supply disruptions. A conjunctive use approach, using surface water effectively when flow conditions allow, and relying on groundwater as a source when surface water is not available may be an effective approach for ensuring water security. No one wants to be left high-and-dry, so let us know if we can help.

Dr. Jon Fennell, Ph.D., P.Geol., M.Sc.
Principal Hydrogeologist & Geochemist
Jon.Fennell@IntegratedSustainability.com

Ian Grant, P.Geo., M.Sc.
Manager, Water Resources
Ian.Grant@IntegratedSustainability.com
(587) 891-1329

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