Evaluate Energy Launches Global Petroleum Demand Model To Forecast COVID-19 Impact On Markets
Evaluate Energy, the leading provider of essential data to Oil & Gas and Renewable Energy markets, is launching a new forecasting tool to assess the impact of COVID-19 on global petroleum demand.
As the pandemic has spread globally, demand for oil has plummeted. Immediate responses by government to combat infection rates have dramatically slowed the global economy and this has negatively impacted oil prices.
Forecasting future global oil needs in such a volatile situation is based on a complex interaction between COVID-19 infection rates, government policy and changing human behaviour.
Evaluate Energy is modelling this interaction using a proprietary analysis of energy markets to predict oil usage during and beyond the COVID-19 lockdown. The model is updated weekly and packaged into a special report and Excel spreadsheet, available for download.
Evaluate Energy forecasts that global petroleum demand will drop to a low of 64.8 million bbls/d in June 2020, from a peak of over 101 million bbls/d in late 2019. Average demand for 2020 will fall to 81.2 million bbls/d.
“There has never been such a volatile time for oil demand,” said Bemal Mehta, chief operating officer of Evaluate Energy.
“Every region that consumes oil and gas will have a different COVID-19 trajectory. There will not be consensus on whether a region is moving too fast or slow in terms of its pandemic response, with re-infection or additional regional outbreaks highly likely in parts of the globe where response by national governments has been inadequate.
“In terms of the oil market, this is an 18-24 month recovery cycle. We may not have reached bottom in terms of demand. We anticipate that any return to ‘normal’ — and it will be a new ‘normal’ — will be incredibly complicated."
Evaluate Energy’s weekly demand forecast will cover the following regions: North America (United States, Canada and Mexico), Central & South America (notably Brazil), Europe, Russia & Eurasia, Asia and Oceania (including China, Japan and India), the Middle East and Africa.
Evaluate Energy is a division of Glacier Resource Innovation Group. www.evaluatenergy.com For more information on the COVID-19 petroleum demand tool, visit: https://www2.jwnenergy.com/evaluate-energy-covid-19-petroleum-demand-tool
Chief Operating Officer, Evaluate Energy
Senior Vice-President, Energy & Mining Intelligence, Glacier Resource Innovation Group
Senior Analyst, Evaluate Energy